Tariffs, localization, and a new global energy order

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Apr 4, 2025

The podcast dives into the shift from climate-centered energy strategies to a focus on national security. As geopolitical tensions rise, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy security is taking precedence in investment decisions. Discussions highlight how this may accelerate the adoption of clean energy solutions. The hosts explore the complexities of energy investment, contrasting tolling versus trading strategies in turbulent markets. They also tackle potential funding cuts for clean energy and the implications for innovation amid Washington's chaotic landscape.

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INSIGHT

Shifting Global Order

The post-WWII global order, where the U.S. protected oil flows, is changing.
This shift, alongside peak trade, prioritizes energy security, potentially accelerating clean energy adoption.

INSIGHT

Impact of Lifting the Oil Export Ban

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban in 2015 significantly altered global oil flows.
The U.S. became a more dominant player, reducing its reliance on global oil markets.

INSIGHT

Global South's Energy Focus

The Global South has long prioritized local energy due to currency limitations when buying fossil fuels.
The West is now adopting this view, focusing on energy security.

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It's fair to say the last decade was the climate era of the energy transition. From the Paris Agreement to corporate net zero pledges, reducing carbon emissions dominated the global framework for deploying clean energy. But something profound is shifting.

In this episode of Open Circuit, we explore how a new security-driven paradigm is replacing climate as the primary driver of energy investments. As supply chains fractured during the pandemic, Russia weaponized natural gas to Europe, and America's role in global trade changes, countries everywhere are asking: not just "how clean is our energy," but "how secure is it?"

We dissect a new investment thesis, called The New Joule Order, arguing energy security could accelerate clean energy adoption faster than the net-zero framework ever could. We examine the historical context of America's changing role in global energy security since World War II, and how the current fracturing of global trade is forcing all countries to think differently about energy systems.

We also examine whether investors are replacing "green versus brown" investment strategies with "tolling versus trading" strategies. Understanding how these assets generate revenue and respond to economic conditions may provide investors with a clearer roadmap during this transition — where certainty is increasingly hard to find.

Plus, we examine the growing chaos in Washington as the Trump administration targets billions in clean energy programs. Multiple "hit lists" circulating through federal agencies are aimed at canceling grants and loans to hydrogen, storage, and transmission projects — mostly in blue states. We explore what this means for America's role in the security-focused energy future.

Sign up for our live virtual show on April 16 at 1:00 PM Eastern.

We'll also be live in person at Latitude's Transition-AI conference on June 12th in Boston with special guest Caroline Golin of Google.

Open Circuit is supported by Kraken, the only proven, AI-powered operating system for utilities. Learn how Kraken helps unlock excellent customer experiences, increased innovation and reduced operational costs at kraken.tech.

Open Circuit is brought to you by On.Energy. As one of the fastest-growing battery storage IPPs, On.Energy delivers turnkey resiliency solutions for utilities and enterprise customers. Whether you’re managing data centers or local grids, we help bring storage to your fleet. Learn more at on.energy.