Day 441 - Is it time for Israel to stage a proxy war?
Dec 20, 2024
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Lazar Berman, a diplomatic reporter for The Times of Israel, joins the discussion on Israel's potential for proxy warfare. He examines the lessons from Israel's past, like the fallout with the South Lebanon Army, emphasizing that proxies may not align with Israel's goals. Berman also discusses the strategic advantages of partnering with the Kurds and Druze to counter Iranian influence. The conversation highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics and Israel's need to reassess its alliances in a complex and shifting landscape.
Israel must rethink its approach to proxy warfare, learning from historical failures like the Southern Lebanese Army debacle.
Engaging with groups like the Druze and Kurds could provide Israel with strategic allies to address regional security challenges.
Deep dives
Proxies in Warfare
The discussion focuses on the concept of using proxies in warfare, particularly highlighting Iran's successful use of such tactics. Proxies allow a country to achieve its security goals while minimizing direct involvement and costs associated with military engagements. The historical context reveals that while Iran has effectively utilized groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel's experience with proxies, such as the Southern Lebanese Army, has been scarred by past failures. This significant divergence suggests that Israel may need to reconsider its approach toward employing proxies in the current geopolitical landscape.
Defining Proxies in International Relations
The podcast provides a clear definition of what constitutes a proxy in international relations, outlining the relationship between a patron and a proxy. The patron is typically a more powerful entity that seeks to fulfill its interests by supporting a weaker group engaged in a localized conflict. This partnership often leads to shared goals but can create tensions when interests diverge. An example cited is a CIA document that expressed skepticism about the alignment of goals between Israel and the Southern Lebanese Army, highlighting the complexity of such relationships.
Israel's Historical Proxy Relationships
Israel's history of engaging with proxy groups like the Lebanese Christians during the Lebanese Civil War is examined, revealing the evolving nature of these relationships. Initially, Israel provided limited support to these groups for security along its borders, as the Christians sought assistance against Palestinian forces. However, as Israel became increasingly involved in Lebanon, the relationship devolved into a complex quagmire that strained both parties. The narrative illustrates the risks inherent in proxy relationships, where initial cooperation can lead to unintended consequences and longer-term commitments.
Potential Future Proxies
The potential for Israel to engage with other groups as proxies, such as the Druze and the Kurds, is discussed as a strategic consideration. The Druze population in Israel and Syria presents an opportunity for building a partnership based on common interests in security against jihadist threats. Meanwhile, the historical ties with the Kurds suggest a favorable alignment of goals that could serve Israel's interests in the region. However, the importance of establishing long-term, coherent plans for supporting such groups is emphasized to avoid the pitfalls experienced with past proxies.
As Israel continues to contend with a war on seven fronts -- primarily through Iran-backed militia proxies -- Berman floats a hypothesis that Israel should turn to its natural allies in the region as well.
We hear about how history has shown that Israeli proxies don't always have the same goals as the Jewish state. We learn about the case of the South Lebanon Army and how things entirely fell apart. And Berman explains how the Kurds -- and potentially the Druze -- could be a long-term strategic answer for Israel's isolated position in the region.
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Subscribe to The Times of Israel Daily Briefing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode was produced by the Pod-Waves.
IMAGE: Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Shamir, during his visit to Lebanese General Antoine Lahat (right) leader of the South Lebanese Army on January 26, 1989 in Marjayoun, Lebonon. (AP Photo/Max Nash)