In Moscow's Shadows 120: Putin is Dead! (well, probably not)
Oct 29, 2023
auto_awesome
Rumors of Putin's death circulate, media outlets react. Speculation on implications of Putin's potential death and possible successor. Career path of the director of the federal tax service. Role of PM Michigan and his actions since replacing Mediviriev. Speculating on the next leader and Michigan's potential.
43:39
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
The fascination with Putin's health stems from the secretive nature of his regime and the potential implications his death could have on the stability and continuity of the Russian regime.
Mikhail Myshustin, the current Prime Minister of Russia, has potential to succeed Putin due to his expertise in economics, tax reform, and digitalization, although his lack of a strong power base and questionable relationships with powerful figures in the security apparatus may pose challenges to his candidacy.
Deep dives
The fascination with Putin's alleged illnesses and mortality
There is a willingness among Western media outlets to explore stories about Putin's alleged illnesses or mortality. The lack of credible information about his health and private life fuels rumors and speculation. This fascination with Putin's health is driven by a combination of factors, including the secretive nature of his regime and the potential implications his death could have. The personalistic nature of the Russian system, which has revolved around Putin for over two decades, raises concerns about the future stability and continuity of the regime.
The insightful role of Prime Minister Mikhail Myshustin
Mikhail Myshustin, the current Prime Minister of Russia, could be a potential successor to Putin. He is known for his expertise in economics, tax reform, and digitalization. Myshustin has successfully implemented measures to combat tax evasion and streamline bureaucratic processes using digitization. As a technocrat, he has earned the approval of the majority of Russians. However, his lack of a strong power base and questionable relationships with powerful figures in the security apparatus may pose challenges to his candidacy. The decision ultimately depends on whether he desires the top job and if other contenders are unable to secure their own support.
The importance of Putin's fate for the Russian regime
The fate of Vladimir Putin is of utmost importance due to the highly personalistic nature of the Russian regime. Over the course of his 23-year rule, the system has become molded around Putin, with personal relationships and the desire to appease the boss shaping behaviors and policies. Even if a Putin-esque successor emerges, the regime will inevitably change due to differences in character, personal relationships, and policy priorities. The lack of a clear successor and succession mechanism adds uncertainty to the future of the regime. The potential transition of power also raises the possibility of internal conflict and contestation.
The implications of Putin's death for Russia and beyond
The death of Putin, particularly if it occurs during his presidency, will have significant implications for Russia and potentially for the larger geopolitical landscape. Internally, a power vacuum could lead to conflict, as influential figures jockey for control. However, it is unlikely to result in a collapse of the system. The question of who succeeds Putin and how they navigate the transition will determine the future direction of Russia. The outcome could impact the ongoing war in Ukraine, potentially leading to its resolution or prolonged continuation, as well as influencing Russia's relationships with the West and its global policies.
In what sounds more like a scene from Armando Ianucci's Death of Stalin, an anonymous Telegram channel tells us Putin is dead, his body stuffed into deep freeze while Patrushev takes over. Credible? Not really, but that doesn't stop many Western media outlets running with the story. So, why this fascination with Putin's health, why does it matter, and what do I think would happen, if Putin really did die in office?
As a natural follow on, in the second part, I look at PM Mikhail Mishustin's chances of being the successor: his best asset may be his very lack of allies...
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.