Bloomberg Intelligence
Trump Tariff Threat, Retail Earnings
Nov 26, 2024
Mary Ross Gilbert, a Senior Equity Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence specializing in retail, dives into the current state of the retail sector. She highlights the contrasting fortunes of Kohl's and Abercrombie & Fitch, discussing the impact of weather and tariffs on consumer engagement. As holiday shopping approaches, she predicts a positive outlook for apparel sales driven by strong consumer demand. Additionally, the risk of impending tariffs and their strategic role in negotiations raises crucial questions about the retail landscape's future.
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Quick takeaways
- The potential introduction of tariffs on major trading partners poses risks to the U.S. economy and could trigger retaliatory actions.
- Retail performance varies significantly, with companies like Abercrombie succeeding through strategic consumer engagement while Kohl's struggles with execution issues.
Deep dives
The Impact of Tariff Threats on Trade Relationships
Recent discussions suggest that imposing tariffs on major trading partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico could significantly disrupt the U.S. economy. A proposed 25% tariff on imports from these countries may act as a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive policy, which raises questions regarding the wisdom of undermining agreements like the USMCA. The potential for retaliatory measures from these countries could further complicate the situation, especially given the role of key industries like automotive manufacturing in the economic relationship. Markets exhibited initial reactions to these tariff threats, but the overall impact on trading dynamics remains uncertain as negotiations unfold.
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