3 years after ChatGPT, vibes meet grid realities

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Dec 5, 2025

Guest

Dawn Owens

Peter Nulsen, Managing Director at Generate Capital, Mike Kramer, Executive at Constellation, and Dawn Owens, Executive at Fervo Energy, dive into the evolving landscape of energy infrastructure in the age of AI. They discuss the growing uncertainty around data center load and its impact on energy project financing. The conversation highlights risks in energy capital structures, how AI might drive demand for clean technologies like geothermal and nuclear, and the innovative Clean Transition Tariff designed to enhance renewable energy contracts.

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INSIGHT

Scaling Assumptions Are Cracking

The trillion-dollar buildout for AI data centers rests on the premise that scaling LLMs yields AGI and enormous electricity demand.
Key AI figures like Ilya Sutskever now question that scaling law, undermining those energy forecasts.

INSIGHT

Vibes Versus Grid Realities

The energy sector is reacting to speculative data center proposals that inflate long-term grid and generation planning.
That mismatch between fast-moving AI plans and slow utility investment cycles creates systemic planning risk.

ANECDOTE

Regulators Were Caught Off Guard

Allison Clements says regulators were caught off guard as data center-driven load surged rapidly.
That surprise is what drew her into focusing on data centers and energy coordination.

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Three years after ChatGPT ignited the AI race, the assumptions driving the trillion-dollar data-center boom are starting to shift.

The belief that endlessly scaling large language models will unlock AGI — and justify unprecedented growth in electricity demand — is now being questioned by some of the field’s most influential voices. At the same time, utilities are planning roughly a trillion dollars in grid upgrades, much of it based on speculative data-center proposals and a still-evolving understanding of real load.

In this episode, Stephen Lacey unpacks the growing tension between an AI industry defined by rapid iteration and a power system built on decades-long investment cycles. What does that mismatch mean for forecasting, financing, and resource planning?

We then feature two conversations from Transition-AI Boston. Former FERC commissioner Allison Clements and Generate Capital’s Peter Nulsen explain why traditional planning signals no longer offer the certainty they once did. How do load uncertainty, short-term contracts, and sequencing challenges reshape the risk profile for new energy projects?

In the second discussion, Mike Kramer of Constellation, Dawn Owens of Fervo Energy, and Sam Simmons of Form Energy explore whether AI-driven load will create meaningful demand signals for clean, firm technologies like geothermal, advanced nuclear, and multi-day storage. What will determine if they gain a real foothold?

We will soon be opening registration for Transition-AI 2026 in San Francisco. More details here.

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With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!