Luca Dellanna on his book Ergodicity, autism, and decision making in our brains.
Oct 13, 2023
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Luca Dellanna, a management advisor and author from Turin, Italy, discusses ergodicity, decision making, and autism. Topics include the concept of ergodicity, luck vs skill, risk management, diversification, decision making vs action taking, and the perception of the world for individuals with mild autism.
Emotional associations with desired behaviors are crucial for encouraging action
Consider irreversible losses and the distribution of outcomes, not just averages
Individuals with mild autism may experience the world differently due to varying levels of focus on details and context
Deep dives
Understanding the Control Heuristic
In the podcast episode, Luca Delana discusses his book 'The Control Heuristic.' The book explores human behavior and focuses on the idea that many people don't have a decision-making problem, but rather an action-taking problem. Delana explains that there are different parts of our brain responsible for decision making and action taking. Decision making involves thinking about facts and building mental models, while action taking relies on past emotional associations with decisions. Delana emphasizes that to encourage action, it is essential to create positive emotional associations with desired behaviors. He warns against only focusing on the best possible outcome and instead suggests maximizing the worst-case scenario, as this leads to strategies that are more compatible with the distribution of outcomes.
The Importance of Non-Agotic Thinking
Another key point discussed in the podcast is the concept of Oleg D. Pand and non-agotic thinking. Non-agotic systems refer to scenarios where the best strategy for one time period may not be the best strategy for a longer time period. Delana gives an example of a skier who has a 20% chance of winning each race but also a 20% chance of breaking their leg in each race. He explains that if one simply adds up the expected wins of individual races, it doesn't accurately reflect the skier's expected wins in a championship. This demonstrates the importance of considering irreversible losses and recognizing that not everything follows an agotic model. Delana suggests being cautious about using averages and formulas without understanding the distribution of outcomes and individual context.
Understanding Autistic Perception
In the podcast, Luca Delana briefly mentions his book on autism called 'The Watch for My Defining Lens.' He describes autism as a spectrum of conditions with different manifestations. Delana focuses on milder forms of autism, where individuals may have slightly different perceptions and mannerisms. He uses the metaphor of a magnifying glass to explain how individuals with mild autism perceive the world. Some experience a weak magnifying glass, allowing them to see the full context but lacking in detail, while others have a strong magnifying glass, enabling them to see details but at the expense of context. Delana highlights the challenges individuals with autism face in social interactions where integrating sensory channels and understanding context play major roles. He also mentions that some individuals on the autism spectrum excel in mathematics and sciences due to their ability to focus on details rather than context.
The intersection of mathematics and thinking
In this podcast episode, the speaker discusses the relationship between mathematics and thinking. They emphasize the importance of bridging the gap between mathematical models and real-life blind spots. The speaker mentions A. Mar Bide, a professor who is writing a book on uncertainty, and an article by a professor of economics on investing in the unsought and the unknowable. The podcast explores the concept of risk versus uncertainty, and the need to consider events like black swans and gray swans that disrupt probability distributions. The speaker also introduces the concept of Grey Swans, which are predictable failures that often fall outside traditional risk analysis. They highlight the significance of understanding failure modes and using tools like Ishikawa diagrams to assess and manage risks.
Mitigating uncertainty and constructing a meaningful life
In this podcast episode, the speaker discusses ways to mitigate uncertainty and construct a satisfying life. They mention the Kelly criterion as a strategy for managing risk in investments. However, they caution that applying the Kelly criterion assumes knowledge of future probability distributions, which is often unreliable. The speaker addresses the emotional impact of uncertainty and the importance of managing downside risks. They share personal experiences and convey the idea that pursuing the highest returns may come at the cost of risking catastrophic failures. The speaker advocates for embracing a balanced approach, considering personal well-being, and being aware of the limitations of modeling uncertainty.
Luca Dellanna is a management advisor and an author from Turin, Italy. His books cover topics ranging across management, human behavior, and economics. He talks to Guy Spier about his early career, his research on ergodicity and some topics from his other books, including autism and the difference of decision making and action taking in our brains.
