‘Unbelievably Nasty Downturn’ In Q1: Gareth Soloway Best And Worst Assets Of 2025
Dec 11, 2024
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Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dives into the economic landscape following extensive stimulus measures. He analyzes Bitcoin's potential after hitting $100k and highlights the insane stock valuations that could lead to a bubble. Gareth shares insights on navigating the looming recession, emphasizing the risks of an artificially stimulated economy. He also expresses bullishness on Chinese stocks and precious metals while discussing the complex interplay between inflation, housing, and investor psychology, making for a captivating market outlook.
A significant economic downturn is expected due to excessive stimulus, leading to potential selling pressure and a harsh market environment, particularly for cryptocurrencies.
Despite Bitcoin reaching $100,000 and investors feeling optimistic, future price movements remain uncertain and may be influenced by broader market trends.
Deep dives
The Potential Economic Downturn
A significant economic downturn is anticipated, driven by the immense amount of stimulus that has been supporting the market, which is far greater than during the 2008 crisis. The current economic environment suggests that when the downturn does occur, it may be exceptionally harsh due to an absence of buyers and potential selling pressure, particularly in the cryptocurrency market. Despite optimistic movements in major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, concerns over looming recession signals persist. The possibility of a recession could lead to severe impacts, given the expectation of elevated inflation and other economic indicators moving in the wrong direction.
Inflation and Market Reactions
Recent data reveals that annual inflation rates have risen slightly to 2.7%, which is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Even as inflation increases, market reactions indicate a euphoric sentiment among investors, driven by factors like potential rate cuts from the Fed. Despite rising inflation, investor confidence remains, possibly due to hopes for imminent monetary policy adjustments. Continued inflationary pressures, especially related to tariffs and rising costs in key areas like housing, prompt concerns about the overall economic stability moving forward.
Market Targets and Technical Analysis
Key technical analysis targets for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indicate that these indices are approaching maximum upside levels before potential resistance. Projections suggest that the S&P 500 could hit around 6,070, while the NASDAQ may experience significant resistance near 20,150. This technical analysis, focusing on past price actions and trend lines, indicates that a turn down is likely once these targets are approached. The implication of reaching these thresholds suggests a critical juncture that could lead to a market correction.
The Future of Bitcoin amidst Market Trends
Bitcoin has recently achieved its long-awaited $100,000 mark, spurring discussions about future price movements as market conditions fluctuate. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin could rise to as high as $108,000, but any upward momentum may be temporary, especially in correlation with broader market trends. The rising sentiment around Bitcoin may reflect a return of risk appetite among investors, yet any downturn in the stock market could similarly impact cryptocurrency values. As Bitcoin demonstrates an intricate relationship with equities, traders should exercise caution and prepare for potential volatility as the market navigates these key resistance levels.
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Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist of Verified Investing, updates his outlook for Bitcoin after it reaches $100k, stocks, gold, the economy, and the asset he's most bullish on for 2025.
Watch Gareth's last interview with me: https://youtu.be/mFkMqVduIS4?si=OVjBFQhVpl1mqOF7
*This video was recorded on December 11, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:20 - 2.7% inflation release
5:11 - Stocks
11:35 - Housing
13:50 - Bitcoin
24:00 - Bitcoin vs. Stocks
27:55 - “Stock valuations are insane”
30:00 - Recession outlook
31:20 - China stocks
35:00 - Precious metals
37:46 - What has surprised Gareth
40:00 - Valuations are in a bubble
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