Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Is a Second Wave of Inflation Coming? With Vincent Deluard and Raoul Pal
Oct 11, 2023
Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX Group, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the risk of elevated inflation in the U.S. economy, the potential impact on risk assets, and the steepening of the yield curve. They also touch on topics like festival learning, the cryptocurrency market, Paul Tudor Jones' stance on gold and Bitcoin, and the challenges of moving away from China.
45:33
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Quick takeaways
- Inflation tends to come in waves after a few years, often driven by geopolitical events, suggesting the possibility of a second wave of inflation.
- The recent increase in yields, particularly in the short-term real yields, is seen as bullish for gold, indicating that the bond market may not be fully pricing in the potential for higher rates and a second wave of inflation.
Deep dives
Stabilization of inflation and potential for second wave
The podcast discusses the recent inflation data, with the September Producer Price Index coming in higher than expected. There is a talk about the possibility of this being the beginning of a second wave of inflation. The speaker mentions that historically, inflation tends to come in waves after a few years, often driven by geopolitical events. The speaker also suggests that even without a second wave, inflation is unlikely to return to 2%, and the Fed would be content with a stabilization of inflation at its current level.
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