Where do things stand in the race as we head into the summer?  

According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville: “It’s clearly very close. There clearly can be events that can impact the outcome. But we’re headed to an election that not many people are very excited about.” 

Carville argues that the Biden campaign needs a message on the economy that is forward-looking, and suggests it isn’t enough for the president to frame the election as a referendum on Trump. Carville considers how abortion and unpopularity of the MAGA movement are potentially winning issues that the Biden campaign might use more effectively. But he notes the Trump operation has been more disciplined than in 2016 or in 2020, and reflects on the limitations to date of Biden’s campaign as incumbent. Kristol and Carville also consider how the outcome of Trump’s New York trial, a debate in June (if it happens!), the conventions, and other upcoming events could shape the race.