Leading economists discuss the baffling state of global crises dubbed 'permacrisis.' They dive into how the New Zealand central bank set an arbitrary 2% inflation target now used worldwide. The conversation also touches on a poignant question from the Queen about the Great Financial Crisis and the consequences of finance overshadowing growth strategies. With a focus on transformative leadership and sustainable recovery, they urge a rethinking of inclusivity and governance in today’s complex economic landscape.
The concept of 'Permacrisis' reflects ongoing geopolitical, economic, and environmental challenges that require proactive leadership and innovative strategies for effective navigation.
Global cooperation through reformed multilateral institutions is critical to managing international trade and preventing fragmentation in an increasingly nationalistic world.
Deep dives
The Concept of Permacrisis
The term 'Permacrisis' is introduced to explain the persistent and recurring nature of crises in today's global landscape, highlighting the accumulation of geopolitical tensions, economic instabilities, and environmental challenges. The authors emphasize that this is not a permanent state but rather a reflection of ongoing structural changes that can be addressed through proactive management and leadership. Their discussions stemmed from conversations during the pandemic, where they sought to understand these complexities and how individuals can navigate them. In the book, they propose that recognizing the dynamics of a perma crisis is essential to facilitate better decision-making and foster resilience in an unstable environment.
Challenges to Economic Growth
The current economic environment is characterized by numerous structural headwinds that impede growth, including demographic shifts like an aging population and declining productivity trends. The conversation highlights how past growth relied heavily on a unique set of circumstances not seen in current times, marking a shift to a supply-constrained economy. The pandemic exacerbated existing issues, leading to increased demand that the supply chain was unprepared to meet, resulting in inflation and further economic strain. Addressing these challenges requires a focus on innovation and effective policy strategies to stimulate productivity and ensure sustainable economic growth.
The Need for Global Coordination
In a world increasingly marked by nationalism and competing agendas, the podcast emphasizes the pressing need for global cooperation through multilateral institutions. The authors argue that while past systems, such as the WTO, need reform to adapt to new economic realities, their roles remain vital in managing international trade and ensuring that cooperative frameworks are established. Without these institutions, the risk of fragmentation and isolationism could outweigh the benefits of globalization, leading to greater instability. The aim for 'WTO 2.0' suggests a move towards innovative governance designed to foster cooperation in a complex and changing global landscape.
The Interplay of Inclusivity and Sustainability in Growth
The discussion on growth illustrates the intricate relationship between economic development, inclusivity, and sustainability, highlighting the challenge of creating an equitable economic environment. Despite substantial progress in alleviating poverty through growth, significant segments of the population continue to be disadvantaged, demanding new strategies that align profitable businesses with inclusive practices. Insights from emerging economies, particularly in technology deployment, showcase potential pathways to achieve both growth and social equity. However, the authors caution that success will require addressing the significant resource commitments necessary for achieving sustainable outcomes, making it imperative to find balance in growth strategies.
Leading economists Mike Spence and Mohamed El-Erian talk about the “pretty complicated and disorienting environment” we face.
In this episode of the McKinsey Global Institute’s Forward thinking podcast, co-host Michael Chui talks with A. Michael Spence, dean emeritus of the Stanford Graduate School of Business, and Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College Cambridge and chief economic advisor at Allianz. Together with former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and Prime Minister Gordon Brown, they have leveraged decades of experience to explore the question “Is the world in a state of permacrisis?”
In this podcast, the guests touch on the following: • How the New Zealand central bank came up with 2 percent as an arbitrary inflation target, which was then adopted by the central banks of major economies around the world. • How the Queen of the United Kingdom asked a room full of economists why they hadn’t seen the Great Financial Crisis coming. • How finance hijacked growth strategies, leading to 20 lost years of thinking about how to promote productivity and high, durable, inclusive growth.