The Dutch Investors #64 | Alphabet Deep Dive | Other bets & Valuation w/ Secret Sauce Investing | Part 2
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Nov 8, 2025 Dive into the intriguing world of Alphabet as experts discuss hidden gems like Waymo and Google's Other Bets. Explore the potential of autonomous taxis and how they could reshape the market. Discover the balance of Alphabet's diverse segments and whether they should be valued together or apart. Predictions for Waymo in 2030 reveal both promising scenarios and challenges. The conversation also weighs Alphabet's current valuation, its long-term prospects, and strategic investment decisions. A must-listen for those keen on tech innovation and market insights!
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Other Bets Are Experiments With One Standout
- Alphabet's Other Bets looks like a place for experimental, expensive projects with little clear success so far.
- Waymo stands out as the most promising Other Bet given scale and investment but remains early and uncertain.
Napkin Math Shows Waymo's Early Revenue
- The host ran napkin math on Waymo showing current scale circa 250k paid trips/week and ~$240M revenue annually today.
- He projected scenarios to 2030 from a conservative multi-city rollout to a more aggressive expansion hitting >$1B revenue.
LiDAR Gives Waymo A Possible Moat
- Sonny argues LiDAR gives Waymo a technological edge versus Tesla's camera-first approach as LiDAR costs have collapsed.
- That sensing advantage could translate into safer, more reliable autonomous taxis and a durable moat.