Time To Say Goodbye cover image

Time To Say Goodbye

Can We Ever Trust the Polls Again?

Nov 13, 2024
Ben Recht is a computer science professor at UC Berkeley with expertise in polling, and Leif Weatherby is a German professor and director of NYU's Digital Theory Lab, specializing in political analysis. They explore whether polling can be trusted after a recent election, discussing its inaccuracies and the societal implications of misinterpreting data. The duo critiques the Democratic Party's messaging and the disconnect with voters, while also navigating the potential landscape for 2028 presidential candidates, blending insights with humor throughout.
01:18:09

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • There is significant skepticism regarding the accuracy of political polling, with experts highlighting that polls often fail to reflect true voter sentiment.
  • The conversation underscores the importance of charisma over policy details in modern politics, suggesting candidates must connect emotionally with voters to gain support.

Deep dives

Critical View on Polling Reliability

The discussion highlights significant skepticism about the accuracy of political polling, particularly following the recent election results. Experts express concerns that polling often lacks true predictive value, as numbers can be manipulated to support various post-election narratives. They argue that the polling industry has been unreliable, with notable figures, such as Ann Selzer, demonstrating considerable inaccuracies in past predictions. The overall sentiment suggests that polls can fail to provide meaningful insights and are often more about shaping perceptions than delivering factual forecasts.

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