Are Iran and Russia losing their grip on the Middle East?
Jan 23, 2025
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In a riveting discussion, Jason Pack, an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and host of the Disorder podcast, dissects the shifting dynamics in the Middle East. He explores the recent setbacks for Russia and Iran, the impact of Israel's military actions on regional power, and the potential downfall of the Iranian regime. The podcast also examines internal conflicts within Israeli politics and the lingering chaos following the Arab Spring, laying bare the complex web of alliances and tensions that define the region today.
The unexpected collapse of Assad’s regime signals a transformative shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics, influenced by recent military actions.
The rise of extremist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham amidst Western aid challenges underscores the urgent need for strategic diplomatic engagement.
Deep dives
Seismic Shifts in the Middle East
In 2025, significant changes in the Middle East have emerged, particularly in Syria where the regime of Bashar al-Assad has collapsed unexpectedly after years of stalemate. The downfall of Assad, supported primarily by Russian mercenaries and Iranian forces, highlights the shifting dynamics in the region, largely influenced by Netanyahu's expanded military operations against Iranian proxies during the recent Israel-Gaza conflict. This military engagement severely weakened Assad’s position and attributed to his rapid downfall, illustrating how fear can diminish loyalty to authoritarian regimes. The implications of this shift have resulted in various ideological changes and a potential reconfiguration of power among regional players.
Challenges for Western Engagement
In the aftermath of Assad's fall, the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has been perceived as a dangerous Islamist faction, has gained influence, yet its leader has shown a troubling ability to navigate Western support and aid channels. While he has demonstrated tactical governance in regions like Idlib, concerns remain about the lack of oversight from Western powers in conditioning aid based on human rights and governance standards. The absence of an organized, coherent approach from the West could lead to a void where extremist groups fill the gap, emphasizing the necessity for diplomatic engagement and strategic reconstruction initiatives in war-torn Syria. Effective coordination among international donors and local governance could help prevent further instability and extremist resurgence.
Implications of Israeli and Iranian Strategies
The unfolding situation between Israel and Iran illustrates a complex web of regional power dynamics, exacerbated by recent conflicts and political maneuvers. While Israel's military actions have momentarily undermined Iranian influence in both Syria and Gaza, questions linger regarding long-term stability and governance in these areas post-conflict. The internal pressures on Netanyahu's administration reveal a disconnect between military success and sustainable peace, with the right-wing factions calling for prolonged conflict to maintain power. Additionally, the Iranian regime, facing instability, is finding it increasingly challenging to maintain its revolutionary ambitions; a potential popular uprising could reshape its future if the Iranian populace grows disenchanted with the current leadership's direction.
The past 12 months have seen stunning reverses for both Russia and for Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ in the Middle East. Rebels humiliated Putin in Syria and Israel devastated Iranian proxies such has Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – albeit it at appalling human cost. Is the region finally turning a corner? Does the ceasefire really mean Israel has “won”? Could the Iranian regime fall? RUSI fellow Jason Pack of the Disorder podcast explains connects the threads of a crucial period for the region.
Written and presented by Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Music by Kenny Dickinson. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production