3. Self-Resolving Markets, Dating Markets, and Suchlike
Jun 13, 2023
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Discussion on self-resolving markets, dating markets, and personal goal markets. Roasting of Crystal Ballin' for not being real. Special call-in guest. Future of the podcast uncertain.
Whale bait markets and gamble markets on the Manifold platform are discussed, highlighting their differences from traditional prediction markets and the controversy surrounding the 'Whales versus Minnows' market.
The concept of personal goal markets is explored, including the dynamics of betting on personal relationships and the use of betting as an incentive for achieving personal goals.
Deep dives
Discussion about Whale Bait Markets and Gamble Markets
In this podcast episode, the hosts discuss the concept of whale bait markets and gamble markets on the Manifold platform. They highlight the differences between these types of markets and traditional prediction markets. They mention specific examples such as a market on whether the average percentage of the market would be above or below 50%. They also discuss the controversy surrounding the 'Whales versus Minnows' market, where the market creator is also the biggest bettor on one side. They mention the ongoing discussions in the resolution council regarding this market.
Introduction to Personal Goal Markets
Another topic covered in the podcast is personal goal markets. The hosts explain that these markets involve betting on personal goals and incentives rather than solely focusing on profitability. They mention the idea of punishing oneself through betting for failure to achieve personal goals. They also mention how personal goal markets have motivated them to improve their sleep patterns and discuss the challenges and dynamics of betting on personal relationships.
Plans for Manifold Grants and Uncertain Future of the Podcast
Towards the end of the episode, the hosts talk about the 'Market Correction Manifold Grants' program, which aims to reward users who improve the accuracy of predictions on the Manifold platform. They express their belief in the value of accurate predictions for personal and world affairs. They also mention their uncertainty about the future of the podcast, stating that its continuation will depend on their time and motivation. They discuss potential topics for future episodes, such as sabotaging an AP BioScore and creating fake biology terms for studying purposes.
In this episode, your hosts Jacob Cohen (@Conflux) and Andrew Imbens (@Imbens) primarily discuss markets that you might bet on for reasons other than belief: self-resolving markets, dating markets, and personal goal markets. We recorded this episode on April 19, which is awhile ago! It is, for example, just as the beginnings of the Whales v. Minnows controversy were heating up. Well, we finally edited it — it’s sort of a “from the vault” episode — but I think our takes aged well, such as our roasting of Crystal Ballin’ for not being real. The episode also features a certain call-in guest. For links to markets mentioned in this episode, go to tinyurl.com/mmp-ep3-shownotes!
0:00 Intro
1:08 Self-resolving markets
6:23 Mana grants (and Audrey)
9:50 Dating markets, stocks, personal goal markets
14:28 Special call-in guest
17:47 Future of the podcast
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