RiskReversal Pod Why VCs Are Finally Bullish Again with Rick Heitzmann & Jesse Chasse | Okay, Computer.
Jan 14, 2026
Rick Heitzmann, co-founder of FirstMark Capital with a rich background in early-stage tech investments, and Jesse Chasse, head of tech equity capital markets at RBC, discuss a revival in VC optimism for 2026. They explore how AI startups are disrupting traditional SaaS models and why most venture returns come from public markets. The duo delves into the factors behind successful IPOs, the shift toward AI-driven business models, and the resurgence of M&A, marking a transformative time for tech investment.
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Bullish Window For 2026
- 2026 is the first year Rick Heitzmann allows himself to feel genuinely bullish on tech markets.
- He cites resilient economic growth, easing rates, and maturing AI as the supporting pillars for a new cycle.
Power-Law Returns Depend On Public Markets
- Rick Heitzmann emphasizes that 80–90% of VC returns are realized in public markets via a handful of power-law winners.
- VCs therefore must watch public markets and focus on companies that can become the next Pinterest, Shopify, Airbnb or DraftKings.
Early Prediction: Pinterest Took Time
- Dan recalled meeting Rick in 2013 after Twitter's IPO and discussing Pinterest as a likely public candidate.
- Pinterest took four more years to IPO, illustrating long, unpredictable private-to-public timelines.