Trita Parsi, an expert on U.S. foreign policy from the Quincy Institute, joins Joshua Landis, a professor of Middle East Studies, to dissect the chaotic landscape of Syria post-Assad. They delve into the surprising fall of Assad’s regime, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the competing interests of Turkey and Israel in the region. Tina Gerhardt critiques the recent UN climate conference, highlighting its failures amidst pressing climate issues faced by vulnerable nations. Together, they explore the intertwined fates of geopolitics and climate action.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria reflects the unexpected fragility of military power amid waning popular support.
Turkey's strategic involvement in Syria revolves around managing refugee flows and countering Iranian influence to regain regional dominance.
Israel's military actions in Syria are driven by a doctrine of dominance aimed at preventing any threats to its national security.
Deep dives
The Sudden Collapse of Assad's Regime
The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad, the leader of Syria, marks a significant and abrupt shift in the country's political landscape. Analysts, including Trita Parsi, attribute this rapid collapse to the unexpected weakness of Assad's military and a lack of popular support for his regime. The Syrian army's reluctance to fight back became evident when external support diminished, drawing parallels to the swift fall of the Afghan government after the U.S. pullout. This occurrence disrupts expectations, illustrating that the regime's fragile foundation could crumble unexpectedly, highlighting the dynamic and unpredictable nature of political power in conflict zones.
Turkey's Strategic Interests in Syria
Turkey's involvement in the Syrian conflict has been largely motivated by its desire to manage the influx of Syrian refugees and to reclaim its influence in the region. The Turkish government aims to facilitate the return of millions of refugees living in Turkey, a goal complicated by rising economic tensions and societal pressures. Additionally, Turkey aspires to counter Iranian influence in Syria, aiming to reinforce its own position as a regional power. This ambition reflects a broader strategy of reestablishing itself as a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics, often referred to as neo-Ottomanism.
Israel's Security Calculations
Israel's primary objective in the Syrian conflict is to ensure that no regime poses a military challenge to its security. The Israeli government maintains that it must operate with full maneuverability against any neighboring entity, leading to aggressive actions aimed at dismantling any military capabilities within Syria. This security approach is characterized by a doctrine of dominance, compelling Israel to undermine the future potential of a stable or democratic Syrian government. The ongoing military operations and border policies are designed to prevent any threat from emerging that could directly challenge Israeli interests.
U.S. Role and Complications in Syria
The U.S. occupies a complex role within the Syrian conflict, shaped by varying interests between different administrations. The Biden administration's continued presence of troops aims to protect key allies, such as the Kurds, while also preserving strategic resources within the region. Contrastingly, the previous Trump administration exhibited ambivalence towards military involvement, reflecting a broader isolationist approach. However, the presence of U.S. troops remains contentious, especially amidst concerns about the Kurds and the potential resurgence of ISIS, making the U.S. position in Syria a balancing act between regional stability and domestic political pressures.
Concerns for Minorities and Future Governance
With the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a dominant force in Syria, concerns for minority groups grow significantly. The history of HTS, intertwined with extremist ideologies and a background as an al-Qaeda affiliate, raises apprehensions about the treatment of non-Sunni populations. Reports of threats against minorities, particularly Alawites, highlight the potential for retribution and societal fragmentation. The prospect of establishing a stable and inclusive government in Syria remains uncertain, hinging on the ability of HTS to transition from militant rule to governance characterized by moderation and broader acceptance.
Trita Parsi and Joshua Landis analyze what’s been going on in Syria. Tina Gerhardt reviews the annual UN climate conference, COP29, where little happened.
Behind the News, hosted by Doug Henwood, covers the worlds of economics and politics and their complex interactions, from the local to the global. Find the archive online: https://www.leftbusinessobserver.com/radio.html
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
