Guest Michael Choe from Charlesbank Capital Partners discusses redefining risk management by advocating for asymmetric scenario modeling, short-term analysis, and probabilistic thinking. He emphasizes the importance of considering potential losses, targeting high-yield return distributions, and using back testing tools to enhance decision-making in private equity.
Shifting to two-year modeling improves risk assessment by focusing on specific upside and downside scenarios.
Embracing a probabilistic mindset enhances decision-making processes and fosters nuanced risk assessments at Charles Bank.
Deep dives
Need to Improve the Traditional 5-Year LBO Models
Questioning the effectiveness of the traditional five-year LBO models, Michael Che advocates for a fresh approach to risk management. He emphasizes the limitations of fixating on precise five-year growth rates and IRRs, which lead to overlooking a wider range of outcomes such as capital impairment or runaway success. By shifting the focus to two-year modeling time horizons and specific upside and downside drivers, teams can engage in more precise discussions about probabilities and scenarios, ultimately enhancing risk management strategies.
Enhancing Risk Management with Probabilistic Thinking
Charles Bank's approach to risk management involves moving away from traditional LBO models and towards assessing two-year probabilities of outcomes. This shift enables teams to quantify specific upside and downside scenarios more effectively, considering factors like macro exposure and revenue streams. By forcing teams to think probabilistically about impairment cases and high IRR instances over a two-year period, the investment firm aims to improve risk assessment and decision-making processes.
Cultural Transformation Through Probabilistic Decision-Making
Embracing a probabilistic mindset has led to a cultural transformation at Charles Bank, influencing how investment decisions are approached and discussed. The firm's focus on probability distributions for various decisions, from divestments to refinancing, has fostered rigorous debates and nuanced assessments of risks and returns. This shift towards thinking probabilistically reflects a broader evolution in the organization's decision-making processes, emphasizing a more holistic and quantitative approach to investment strategies.