165. Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know | Marian Tupy
May 3, 2021
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Marian Tupy, a senior policy analyst at the Cato Institute and co-author of "Ten Global Trends: Every Smart Person Should Know," brings a refreshing perspective on global progress. He highlights ten significant trends demonstrating that the world is getting better, not worse. Their discussion challenges negative societal narratives, explores the role of urbanization in innovation, and reassures listeners about poverty reduction. Tupy also advocates for a balanced view of democracy's challenges, emphasizing creativity's role in driving human advancement and the importance of learning from historical successes.
The concept of the Great Enrichment attributes the remarkable global prosperity and improved quality of life to the rise of liberal democracy and economic freedom.
Shift from agriculture-based economies to industrialization and urbanization has played a crucial role in reducing global poverty rates.
Contrary to belief, natural resources have become cheaper over time due to innovation, economic efficiency, and market dynamics.
Technological progress has consistently transformed society and human well-being, leading to advancements in healthcare, communication, transportation, and energy.
Advancements in agricultural productivity have significantly reduced famines and contributed to a more food-secure world.
Deep dives
The Great Enrichment
The podcast episode discusses the concept of the Great Enrichment, which refers to the extraordinary increase in global prosperity and quality of life that occurred in the last 150 years. It attributes this remarkable improvement to the rise of liberal democracy and the increase in economic freedom and innovation. The episode emphasizes the importance of recognizing and appreciating this progress, while also highlighting the need to preserve the political and economic institutions that have contributed to it.
The End of Poverty
The podcast explores the significant reduction in global poverty rates over the past few decades. It highlights how the shift from agriculture-based economies to industrialization and urbanization has played a crucial role in lifting people out of poverty. The episode showcases the impact of economic growth, technological advancements, and increasing openness to trade and investment in reducing poverty worldwide, while acknowledging the importance of keeping these trends intact for continued progress.
Are We Running Out of Resources?
The podcast challenges the notion that the world is running out of natural resources by providing data that shows a decline in the real prices and time prices of 50 major commodities since 1980. It highlights the counterintuitive fact that natural resources have become cheaper despite population growth and urbanization. The episode underscores the importance of understanding the role of innovation, economic efficiency, and market dynamics in ensuring resource availability and affordability.
The Reality of Technological Progress
The podcast emphasizes the consistent and transformative impact of technological progress on society and human well-being. It discusses the rapid advancements in various fields, such as healthcare, communication, transportation, and energy, that have significantly improved the standard of living. The episode highlights the need to embrace and continue supporting innovation and technological development to address future challenges and ensure ongoing progress.
The Positive Trends of Human Progress
Human beings are not just consumers, but also creators of resources and ideas, which has led to an increase in resource availability and innovation. Examples like the switch from spermaceti candles to electricity show how humanity constantly finds alternatives to scarce resources. Population growth is expected to peak and then decline, as fertility rates decrease. While the decline in population may pose challenges, it also raises concerns about the potential decrease in geniuses born. However, advanced technology, urbanization, and improved governance have contributed to a safer world, decreased the impact of natural disasters, and led to a decreasing trend in war and conflict.
The Decline in Famine and Increased Food Production
Over the past century, famines have significantly reduced, thanks to advancements in agricultural productivity. Introduction of technologies and synthetic fertilizers, along with development of superior plant varieties, has led to higher crop yields. Food production has increased to the extent that certain regions, like sub-Saharan Africa, now have the same food access as wealthier countries in the past. While challenges remain, such as obesity in some areas, improvements in agricultural practices have contributed to a more food-secure world.
More Land for Nature and the Benefits of Urbanization
Contrary to the narrative of environmental decline, there has been an increase in greenery and tree coverage, particularly in reforested areas. Efforts towards ecological preservation and protected territories, alongside economic growth and stability, have enabled expansive land for nature conservation. As more people move to urban areas, it enhances resource efficiency, reduces energy consumption, and fosters innovation. Cities have historically been drivers of progress, whether in economic growth, cultural advancements, or technological innovation.
Democracy's Expansion and the Decline in Conflict
Despite recent shifts towards authoritarianism in some countries, the overall trend suggests that more people are living under democratic regimes compared to the past. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall led to a significant wave of democratization in many regions. While threats to democracy persist, the absence of countries openly declaring war has become the norm. Conflicts have become smaller and less deadly, with most being ethnic or civil wars rather than full-scale international conflicts. However, vigilance is still needed to protect and strengthen democratic values.
The Decline in Natural Disaster-Related Deaths
Contrary to the perception of increased natural disasters due to climate change, the number of deaths caused by such disasters has significantly decreased in the past century. Greater wealth, technological advancements, and improved prediction systems have enabled better disaster preparedness and response. With reduced mortality rates, the focus should shift towards addressing the root causes of climate change and enhancing sustainability.
Dr. Marian Tupy and I discuss a variety of information critical to the direction of the world as outlined in his book Ten Global Trends. We discuss each of the ten positive trends over the last century leading to a better/ richer world overall for most of humanity. We explore how impactful these trends are and why the trajectory of societies is looking less apocalyptic than most people may believe.
Dr. Marian Tupy is a senior policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity and co-author of Ten Global Trends: Every Smart Person Should Know.
Find more Dr. Marian Tupy at his website - https://www.HumanProgress.org and his book Ten Global Trends: Every Smart Person Should Know - https://www.amazon.com/Global-Trends-Every-Smart-Person/dp/1948647737/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
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