Intelligence Squared Covid by Numbers with David Spiegelhalter
Oct 15, 2021
David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University and author of "Covid by Numbers," discusses the complexities of data interpretation during the pandemic. He and virologist Dr. Chris Smith explore the challenges of testing accuracy, including false positives and the nuances of COVID-19 death reporting. They also delve into the UK's policy struggles, excess death rates, and the broader implications of public health decisions, providing insights into future scenarios and the importance of clear communication.
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Scientists and Policy
- Scientists should refuse to take responsibility for policy decisions.
- Policy involves broader considerations than just scientific viewpoints.
Misjudging the Pandemic
- David Spiegelhalter misjudged the pandemic's impact, underestimating the potential deaths.
- His optimism led him to refrain from offering policy recommendations.
Value of Models
- Models offer a range of possibilities, from awful to not-so-bad, given the uncertainties.
- They depend on unknowns about the virus and human behavior.
