
Full Signal AI will kill inflation. The Fed isn’t ready | Cullen Roche, Discipline Funds
Jan 9, 2026
Cullen Roche, founder and CIO of Discipline Funds and author of "Your Perfect Portfolio," shares insightful macro perspectives. He discusses how AI is poised to create disinflationary pressures by increasing supply and lowering costs. Cullen critiques the Fed's policy missteps during the pandemic and explains why the $38 trillion government debt isn't as concerning as it sounds. He also highlights demographic shifts as a factor influencing inflation, along with the need for innovative policies in an AI-driven economy.
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Housing Drives Perceived Decline
- Living standards have improved massively in aggregate but feel worse for many due to inequality and social-media comparisons.
- Housing unaffordability since COVID is a central driver of negative sentiment and perceived decline in living standards.
Policy Mix Fueled Housing Spike
- The Fed's low rates and delayed QE withdrawal in 2020–21 amplified housing inflation when combined with large fiscal deficits.
- Roche emphasizes fiscal policy plus Fed accommodation caused the COVID-era surge in home prices.
AI Trade Is Not Dot‑Com Repeat
- Today's AI-led market differs from the dot-com bubble because many leading firms are highly profitable and real.
- That makes the current AI enthusiasm more justifiable than past tech bubbles even if valuations remain contested.




