Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, discusses the potential breakout in the tech sector, factors driving commodity prices, and his portfolio positioning. The hosts highlight the recovery of the market, Nvidia's strong earnings fueling the tech rally, and the interconnectedness of the global economy's impact on inflation. They also analyze oil production cuts, China's economic slowdown, factors affecting the bond market, and Bitcoin's impact.
Tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, are rallying strongly, suggesting a potential return to a bull market rally driven by falling interest rates.
Despite concerns over the Chinese economy, gasoline demand remains steady and resilience in oil prices is observed, indicating a measured and potentially sustainable movement in the energy complex.
Deep dives
Tech Stocks Lead the Market Recovery
Tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, have been rallying strongly, despite some negative sentiment and profit-taking after strong earnings. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 have both bounced back above their 50-day moving averages, suggesting a potential return to a bull market rally. The rally is driven by falling interest rates, which historically has been favorable for the tech sector. The market sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to neutrality or mild fear, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Japan Yield Curve Control and US Debt Downgrade
The market had concerns over Japan relaxing its yield curve control policy and a Fitch downgrade of US debt. However, these factors did not have a fatal impact on the US stock market. During the recent market dip in mid-August, the S&P 500 found support at its moving average and rebounded, while the VIX volatility index dropped below its 50-day moving average. This suggests that the market is working its way out of the dip and potentially entering a new bullish phase. The current breakout rally, led by tech stocks, such as Nvidia, indicates that the rally may continue.
Inflation and Bond Market Behavior
Persistently rising inflation is a concern, particularly as structural inflation is embedded in the economy due to the transition to net zero emissions. The combination of moderate economic strength and increasing inflation may result in higher bond yields, leading to challenges for the bond market. While the bond market has been successful in controlling high inflation, a repetition of yearly declines in the bonds market for three consecutive years suggests a vulnerability to persistent inflation. This scenario could potentially yield an environment similar to 2016-2017, where rates increased, the economy strengthened, and the S&P 500 rallied sharply.
China, Global Growth, and Commodity Markets
The slowing Chinese economy raises concerns about global growth and its impact on commodity prices. However, despite negative economic data from China, such as declining job openings and German recession, gasoline demand remains steady and resilience in oil prices is observed. This indicates that the market sentiment is not entirely pessimistic about global growth and commodities. Factors such as lower gasoline inventories, refinery fires, and potential supply shocks due to events like hurricanes contribute to a measured and potentially sustainable movement in the energy complex. Gold stocks, on the other hand, have not shown promising performance, and other sectors within the natural resources space, such as refineries and steel stocks, may offer better opportunities for investors in the coming months.
Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Maggie Lake to discuss a potential breakout in the tech sector, the factors driving price in commodites, and how he is positioning his portfolio at the moment.