EP8: Tim Bray on key macro surprises and expectations

This month, we’re excited to welcome Tim Bray, Managing Director of Alternative Investments and Senior Portfolio Manager at GuideStone Financial Resources. With more than $23 billion in assets under management, GuideStone is one of the nation’s largest faith-based mutual fund companies. Over his 19-year tenure, Tim has played a pivotal role in expanding the firm’s alternative investments platform—overseeing approximately $3.5 billion in assets for both internal capital and external clients.

In this episode, we discuss the key macro surprises of 2024, expectations for 2025, and how factors like interest rates, inflation, and headline risks (such as tariffs) shape investment strategies. Tim also offers insights on GuideStone’s approach to asset allocation, highlighting the growing importance of private credit and how the firm balances liquidity needs with inherently illiquid investments. We’ll explore emerging segments in private credit, including Asset-Backed Financing, and close with Tim’s biggest concerns and surprises for the coming year.