Becker’s Healthcare Podcast Scott Becker - Health Insurers Take it on the Chin as a Deal Comes Together in D.C. 11-11-25
Nov 11, 2025
In a revealing discussion, Scott Becker analyzes the dramatic stock declines for major health insurers amid potential changes to Affordable Care Act subsidies. Oscar Health, Centene, and Humana are particularly affected, while others have mitigated risks by distancing themselves from certain Medicare Advantage markets. Year-to-date performances highlight contrasting fortunes, with UnitedHealthcare down significantly, while CVS Health thrives. The episode delves into how insurers specializing in Medicaid and Medicare are facing the toughest challenges.
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Subsidy Deal Hits Medicare Advantage Stocks
- Major insurers tied to Medicare Advantage and Medicaid managed care fell sharply on news ACA subsidies may change under a near-term government shutdown deal.
- Oscar Health plunged 14% while Humana and Centene dropped 5–7%, signaling market sensitivity to subsidy shifts.
Dependency Explains Divergent Stock Moves
- Exposure to ACA-related subsidies differentiates insurers' stock reactions to the deal news.
- Insurers less dependent on those subsidies showed smaller immediate movements compared with Oscar, Centene, and Humana.
Year-To-Date Performance Shows Varied Risk
- Year-to-date performance varies widely across big insurers, reflecting different exposures and business mixes.
- UnitedHealthcare is down 36%, CVS Health is up over 70%, Cigna down ~7%, and Elevance down ~17% year to date.