Join Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times, and Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Stanford military expert and author, as they dive into the chaotic purges within China’s People's Liberation Army. They discuss the implications of Xi Jinping's ongoing investigations into top generals and the potential for future military actions over Taiwan. The conversation also explores the effectiveness of military reforms initiated in 2015, and whether these changes strengthen or weaken China’s military readiness amidst rising global tensions.
Xi Jinping's ongoing purges within the PLA highlight a dual focus on anti-corruption efforts and potential military ambitions regarding Taiwan.
The effectiveness of military reforms since 2015 remains debated, raising concerns about operational readiness amid leadership instability and internal investigations.
Deep dives
Ongoing Military Investigations in China
China's military leadership is currently under scrutiny as investigations into corruption continue to unfold within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Recent reports reveal that senior generals, including the current defense minister, Dong Jun, are under investigation, highlighting a systematic effort by President Xi Jinping to root out corrupt officials. This action is viewed with concern in Washington, especially regarding the potential implications for China's military readiness and capabilities, particularly in the context of Taiwan. The ongoing investigations raise questions about the effectiveness of military reforms initiated in 2015 and how they impact Xi's ability to ensure loyalty and competence among the top ranks of the PLA.
Significance of Recent Purges in Military Ranks
The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, a top officer of the Central Military Commission, marks a significant development in Xi Jinping's ongoing anti-corruption campaign. Miao's ousting is particularly noteworthy as it involves officials previously considered close allies of Xi, suggesting a deeper level of distrust within the military. The repeated purging of defense ministers raises questions about the stability and operational readiness of the PLA as a whole. Analysts indicate that the constant reshuffling of leadership positions may hamper effective military decision-making, particularly amid rising tensions regarding Taiwan.
Xi's Tactical Approach to Military Reform
Xi Jinping's strategy combines anti-corruption efforts with broader military reforms aimed at enhancing the PLA's capabilities and organizational structure. By shifting the leadership from the Army to the Navy, Xi demonstrates a focus on aligning military power with China's maritime ambitions. His reforms encompass a significant modernization of military operations and capabilities, emphasizing joint operations and a focus on specific strategic areas, such as anti-access and area denial strategies. However, the effectiveness of these reforms, particularly concerning the readiness of officers and the military as a whole, remains a crucial topic of debate among experts.
Implications for Taiwan and Regional Security
While discussions about potential military action against Taiwan are pervasive, the timeline remains uncertain, with 2027 indicated as a target for readiness but not necessarily action. The internal strife and corruption investigations within the PLA could complicate Xi Jinping's calculations regarding a military campaign. Concerns are raised that continued purges could delay military preparedness, ultimately impacting China's ability to conduct an effective operation. Analysts suggest that Xi's confidence in his military leadership will be a determining factor in any future decisions related to Taiwan, emphasizing the need for a balance between disciplined military governance and operational readiness.
More than a year after Xi Jinping purged two senior generals in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force unit, China’s investigation into its military seems to be ongoing, with more scalps taken. In recent weeks, Miao Hua, another senior general who had been a member of the Central Military Commission, has been suspended; while reports abound that the country’s current defence minister, Dong Jun, is under investigation too. If suspended, Dong would be the third consecutive defence minister that Xi has removed. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one defence minister may be regarded a misfortune; to lose three looks like carelessness.
So what is happening at the top of the PLA? Is all of this movement a sign of Xi failing to get on top of corruption within the military or, in fact, a sign that he is gearing up for serious military action, perhaps over Taiwan? Just how effective have the military reforms that Xi instigated in 2015 been?
Joining the podcast today are Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on the Chinese military at Stanford University and author of Upstart: How China Became a Great Power, and Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times.
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