Israel continues Gaza assault, confrontation in the Red Sea & Taiwan goes to the polls
Jan 5, 2024
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Foreign Correspondent Lizzie Porter in Jerusalem updates us on the war in Gaza. The tensions rising in the Red Sea as Houthi rebels continue to target a busy shipping lane with missiles and drones. We travel to Taiwan a week ahead of the presidential election to explore the profound consequences it could have for the country, the region, and the world.
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan could have significant geopolitical implications, potentially impacting the delicate detente between the US and China.
The Chinese threat and Taiwan's foreign policy, including the cross-strait relationship, are key issues in the election.
Deep dives
Domestic Policies and the Cross-Strait Relationship
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is dominated by the question of Taiwan's political and constitutional relationship with China. The three main candidates: Lai Ching-te, Han Kuo-yu, and Ko Wen-je, have differing views on this issue. Lai, from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), wants to maintain the status quo and strengthen Taiwan's autonomy, while Han, from the Kuomintang (KMT) party, seeks closer economic ties and dialogue with China. Ko, the candidate from the Taiwan People's Party, also emphasizes dialogue with China but has a strong focus on domestic issues.
Geopolitical Implications
The outcome of Taiwan's election will have significant geopolitical implications. The relationship between Taiwan and China is already tense, with China increasing military intimidation and economic coercion. If Lai is reelected, tensions could escalate further, potentially impacting the fragile detente between the US and China. On the other hand, if Han or Ko wins, China may attempt to push Taiwan toward peaceful unification, which could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy and strategic military balance in the region.
China's Threat and Foreign Policy
The Chinese threat and Taiwan's foreign policy are key issues in the election. All candidates oppose the one country, two systems proposal from China and emphasize Taiwan's democratic rights and autonomy. They each have different approaches to the cross-strait relationship. Lai rejects the 1992 consensus and advocates for maintaining Taiwan's independence without formally declaring it. Han accepts the consensus and seeks closer ties with China. Ko is a centrist candidate with a focus on economic and domestic concerns, but also supports dialogue with Beijing.
Uncertainty and Close Race
The election is highly competitive and polls indicate a close race. While Lai currently has a slight lead in some polls, the outcome remains uncertain. The legislative elections will also play a significant role, as no party is projected to secure a majority. Regardless of the election outcome, the future of Taiwan is consequential for the global economy, security in the region, and the delicate balance of power between the US and China.
In this episode of Battle Lines, we hear from Foreign Correspondent Lizzie Porter in Jerusalem, who brings up to date on the war in Gaza. Then we look South, with The Telegraph’s Defence Editor Danielle Sheridan, at the tensions rising in the Red Sea as Houthi rebels continue to target a busy shipping lane with missiles and drones.
Finally, with our Asia Correspondent Nicola Smith, we travel to Taiwan a week ahead of presidential election in the embattled island nation that could have profound consequences for the country, the region and the world.