Marketplace The "stuck economy," tariffs and Wall Street
27 snips
Sep 30, 2025 
Martha Gimbel, Executive Director of the Budget Lab at Yale, dives into the challenges of the labor market and the implications of a potential government shutdown. She reveals how missing jobs data could create a significant gap in understanding economic health. Gimbel discusses the bond market's nervousness versus the stock market's calm and the impact of new tariffs on housing costs. Lastly, she highlights the stalled job market and what could help the economy regain momentum, emphasizing the need for clarity and consumer confidence.
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Shutdown Creates Dangerous Data Blind Spot
- A government shutdown could pause BLS operations and cancel key jobs data releases like the monthly report.
- That data gap would leave policymakers and markets flying blind during a fragile labor-market shift.
Hiring Slump Masks Hidden Labor Risk
- JOLTS shows hiring has slowed sharply while layoffs remain low, keeping unemployment deceptively stable.
- Low hiring raises the risk of rapid deterioration if firms switch from hiring freezes to layoffs.
Use Private Data, But With Caution
- Turn to private-sector labor data cautiously if BLS releases are paused, but expect noise and benchmarking issues.
- Monitor weekly claims for layoffs, but remember hiring data will remain hard to replace.