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In this episode of the DTC Podcast, we dive into the results of a survey of over 600 DTC brand operators, conducted in partnership with Keen Decision Systems. With Q4 2025 shaped by shifting tariffs, tight margins, and uncertain demand, we speak with Justin Jefferson, VP of Strategy & Insights at Keen, to unpack how brands are (and aren’t) preparing for what’s ahead.

You can access the full Q4 Planning & Profitability Report here: https://www.directtoconsumer.co/newsletter/inside-q4-what-dtc-operators-are-seeing-saying-and-planning

If you’re interested in the latest trends in marketing spend and performance, explore Keen’s insights dashboard. It’s continuously updated with timely, actionable data to help you stay ahead.

Justin shares real-world insights into how leading DTC brands are making smarter decisions through scenario planning, forecasting, and more disciplined budget allocation—while calling out the traps many fall into, from knee-jerk cuts to overreliance on ROAS.

Why less than 7% of brands are confident in their Q4 forecasts—and how to fix it

The danger of reactive planning and the real meaning of agility

How scenario modeling helps brands balance margin defense with long-term growth

Why ROAS is outdated, and the move toward marginal ROI and long-term profitability modeling

What large brands do differently: disciplined investment, top-of-funnel steadiness, and planning across multiple economic conditions

How to rethink testing budgets and ensure you’re not starting Q1 blind

This episode is for any brand operator looking to survive—and strategically grow—through an unpredictable Q4.

Timestamps:

00:00 Understanding Q4 Uncertainty in 2025

02:58 Why Contingency Planning Matters

05:55 Top vs Bottom Funnel Spending Strategy

08:13 Preparing for Margin Pressure and Tariffs

11:45 How Mature Brands Avoid Going Dark

14:20 The Problem with Relying on ROAS

17:22 What to Know Before Scaling Experimental Budgets

20:06 Underrated Ad Channels That Work

22:58 Real Case Study: Avoiding Costly Inventory Mistakes

26:30 Final Tips for Smarter Weekly Spend

Hashtags:

#dtcpodcast

#q4planning

#ecommercemarketing

#digitalmarketing

#keendecisioning

#roas

#marketingstrategy

#tariffs

#marketingbudget

#d2cpodcast

#customeracquisition

#topfunnel

#brandstrategy

#marketinginsights

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Daily Crunch 4/8/22