UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Macro Monthly Podcast with UBS Asset Management
Jan 9, 2024
Top UBS Asset Management professionals discuss the current state of the economy, including a soft landing concept, resilience of growth, decreasing inflation, positive real incomes, and expected rate cuts by the Fed. They also analyze global economic conditions, stable PMIs in Europe, demand for tech goods, and the potential for global growth beyond the US.
10:19
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Quick takeaways
- Recent data suggests a 'soft landing' in the economy, with declining inflation and moderate growth.
- Lower inflation will prompt the Fed to cut rates, but there is no need for aggressive action as the global economic outlook is positive.
Deep dives
Soft landing camp and declining inflation
The podcast discusses the concept of a 'soft landing' in the economy and how recent data supports this view. Inflation has decreased more than expected, with core PC inflation below the Fed's target at 1.9%. Additionally, the Atlanta Fed's tracking of Q4 GDP estimates growth at 2%, aligning with long-term trends. This environment of moderate growth and declining inflation is seen as positive, with real incomes remaining positive and giving consumers more spending power.
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