Bloomberg Surveillance: Peak Restrictions Not Reached
Dec 11, 2023
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Guests include Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, Greg Valliere, AGF Chief US Policy Strategist, and Max Layton, Citi Global Head of Commodities Research. Topics covered include peak restrictions, the role of bonds in investor portfolios, potential surprises from the Democrats, and the need for OPEC+ to maintain cuts for market balance.
The Democrats could surprise with an unknown nominee in the upcoming elections.
OPEC+ will need to continue production cuts next year to balance the oil market.
Deep dives
The Impact of Costly Capital Rules on Working Families
The government's costly new capital rules have significant consequences for everyday Americans, especially working families. These rules make loans more expensive and harder to obtain, potentially leading to challenges in homeownership and small business development. Congress needs to take action to prevent the negative outcomes of Basel Endgame.
The Importance of Trusted Data for AI
While AI has the power to automate, it is essential to ensure that it is using trusted data in order to produce reliable results. Businesses should not just adopt AI, but the right AI that is tailored to their specific needs. IBM's Watson X offers a platform that allows businesses to train, tune, and deploy AI models using their trusted data, enabling them to create effective and accurate AI systems.
The Significance of Sufficiently Restrictive Monetary Policy
The podcast episode emphasizes the significance of sufficiently restrictive monetary policy. It discusses evidence of disinflation and deflation, particularly in energy and goods prices. However, the situation is now spreading into service prices, including rents and core services. The Federal Reserve's approach to maintaining sufficiently restrictive policy for a long enough period is influenced by past mistakes and the desire to balance economic growth with inflation concerns.
Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says we still have yet to feel peak restriction. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says there's a place for bonds as investors look to a more balanced portfolio. Greg Valliere, AGF Chief US Policy Strategist, says we could see a surprise from the Democrats with an unknown nominee. Max Layton, Citi Global Head of Commodities Research, says OPEC+ would need to maintain cuts next year in order to balance markets. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance