Day 812 - Brig.-Gen. Eran Ortal on where does the IDF go after October 7?

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Dec 26, 2025

Eran Ortal, a retired Brigadier-General in the Israel Defense Forces and military theorist, shares crucial insights on the challenges facing the IDF post-October 7. He critiques the military's shift from decisive victories to indecisive deterrence strategies against non-state actors. Ortal highlights the erosion of reserve force readiness and the need for reform which was left unfinished before the recent crisis. He emphasizes the importance of integrating drones and advanced technology to enhance ground operations while preserving airpower capabilities.

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INSIGHT

Constant Method Change Preserved Strategy

Israel's strategy repeatedly changed methods to preserve the same principle of decisive short wars.
The IDF adapted from irregular defense to armored maneuver to precision intelligence and air-led war to maintain strategic advantage.

INSIGHT

Method Over Strategy Led To Deterrence Wars

The shift to airpower and intelligence created a method-centered approach that deprioritized decisive ground victory.
That produced long, deterrence-focused operations rather than short wars that remove threats.

ANECDOTE

Reserve Confidence Eroded Over Decades

Eran Ortal describes a decades-long erosion of reserve forces' confidence and investment.
He links that erosion to the poor preparedness exposed by the October 7th surprise and the war's prolonged course.

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Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, catch diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe.

This week, we’re joined by Eran Ortal, a brigadier-general (res.) in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and a leading military theorist. Ortal commanded The Dado Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies, and wrote "The Battle Before the War: The Inside Story of the IDF's Transformation," which came in second place for the Institute for National Security Studies's 2025 Tshetshik Prize.

Months before the October 7 invasion of southern Israel by Hamas, Ortal warned in an interview with The Times of Israel that the country's "military situation is eroding, not improving," and that “time is not on our side."

Ortal explains what glaring problems he saw in the military in which he served for decades. He says that the IDF concept in its initial decades enabled it to win its famous victories over far more numerous foes.

He then lays out why the IDF's center of gravity moved from the armored corps to the Air Force and intelligence services.

Over time, says Ortal, Israel also moved away from its focus on decisive victory, and pursued a series of indecisive deterrence operations against non-state enemies like Hamas and Hezbollah.

While there were efforts underway in the IDF to implement a wide-ranging series of reforms in the years before October 7, the Hamas attack took place before they had the desired effect. Israel, he says, went to war with an army that had not been properly trained and resourced, which affected the course of the war in Gaza.

Looking forward, the IDF must go through another transformation, Ortal argues. Those who argue for continuing to prioritize airpower are mistaken, as are those who call for a return to a focus on mass ground maneuver.

Instead, there must not only be investment in AI, drones, and a network that brings them to the troops on the battlefield; Israel also needs a new strategy that employs cutting-edge technology to achieve decisive victory over its enemies.

Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Ari Schlacht.

IMAGE: Israeli soldiers are seen during an army raid in the West Bank town of Tubas, November 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

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