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Investing Experts

Will war trigger a bear market and spike in oil?

Oct 21, 2024
James Kostohryz, a macro-oriented investor and global strategist known for his top-down approach, shares his insights on pressing geopolitical risks. He discusses how tensions between Israel and Iran could lead to oil price spikes and potentially trigger a bear market. The conversation also touches on FOMO in investing, urging listeners to reconsider asset allocations in light of macroeconomic uncertainties. Kostohryz highlights the market's tendency to underestimate risks, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments amidst geopolitical turmoil.
56:39

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The transition to a macro-oriented investment strategy helps investors understand broader market trends, minimizing risks in their portfolios.
  • Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran pose significant risks that could disrupt oil supply and spike prices dramatically.

Deep dives

The Effect of Market Trends on Investor Behavior

The current trend of the S&P making consistent new highs contributes to a heightened sense of FOMO, or fear of missing out, among investors. Many individuals and institutional investors may find it difficult to adopt a defensive position due to concerns about falling behind if the market continues to rise. This psychological pressure fosters a reluctance to become cautious, potentially putting investors at risk if a market correction occurs. The podcast emphasizes that such behaviors are common during bullish market conditions, complicating decision-making for risk management.

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