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Economic Gloom vs Market Calm
- Economic surveys show deep gloom while markets stay relatively calm.
- Traditional recession indicators are all present despite market resilience.
Retail Buying Masks Market Warnings
- Retail investors are aggressively buying dips, keeping markets from falling further.
- Markets may not always be as forward-looking as the efficient markets hypothesis suggests.
Skepticism on Trade War Impact
- Wall Street may underestimate the impact of trade wars and tariffs on the economy.
- There's skepticism that negotiations will reverse the damaging trade policies quickly or fully.