The KE Report Marc Chandler - The “Hawkish Cut,” Dollar Strength, U.S.-China Trade Truce
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Oct 31, 2025 Join Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, as he provides witty insights into the latest financial trends. He discusses the Fed's 'hawkish cut' and its implications, highlighting a strong dollar driven by robust US data and a recent U.S.-China trade truce. Chandler raises intriguing points about the end of quantitative tightening and the potential influence of the next Fed chair on future policy. With a mix of geopolitics and market dynamics, he explores uncertainties that might shape the economic landscape ahead.
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Dollar Strength Is Multifactorial
- The dollar's recent strength reflects a mix of U.S. data, Fed 'hawkish cut' messaging, and global economic weakness.
- Marc Chandler sees the dollar rally as a correction with room to reach the 200-day moving average near 100–101.45 before reassessing.
2026 Could Bring A More Dovish Fed Chair
- The next Fed chair could shift policy more dovish, aligning with administration views and Treasury Secretary suggestions.
- Chandler expects potential outsiders like Hassett or Bessant to be favored over current insiders, changing the policy trajectory in 2026.
December Cut Is Not A Done Deal
- December's rate cut odds are lower than markets price; Chandler estimates under 50% probability.
- The Fed needs clear labor-market deterioration or easing inflation to justify a December cut.