Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration

28 snips

Nov 15, 2024

Adam Parker, Founder and CEO of Trivariate Research and former chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, joins the discussion focused on market dynamics and the unpredictable nature of election outcomes. They dive into the reliability of polling versus betting markets, revealing the implications for political bias. Parker addresses the current stock market's valuations, the tension between value and growth investing, and the potential economic impacts of immigration policies. The conversation also touches on consumer sentiment and its influence on market perceptions.

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INSIGHT

Polymarket's Accuracy

Polymarket's predictions on the midterm elections will likely be more accurate than traditional polling data.
This suggests a shift towards prediction markets for gauging public sentiment.

ANECDOTE

Election Predictions

Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss their evolving predictions during the presidential election.
Their uncertainty highlights the challenges of forecasting political outcomes.

ADVICE

Hedging with Polymarket

Instead of speculating on the election's impact on markets, directly bet on the election outcome itself.
This is now possible through platforms like Polymarket, offering a new hedging tool.

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On episode 166 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Adam Parker to discuss: the biggest risks to the market, David Einhorn on valuations, the Fed's next move, the dumbest chart ever, and much more!

This episode is sponsored by KraneShares! Watch their post-election webinar with Terry Branstad at: http://kraneshares.com/compound

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