Motley Fool Money The Rise of Prediction Markets
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Apr 26, 2025 
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, shares insights on how prediction markets revolutionized betting during the recent presidential election. He explains the distinction between event contracts and traditional gambling, hinting at disruption in sports betting. Jen Wieczner, a features writer for New York Magazine, discusses her investigation into Polymarket, a billion-dollar platform facing legal challenges. They dive into the transformative potential of prediction markets and the ongoing battle for regulatory acceptance, highlighting both innovation and obstacles in this dynamic landscape.
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Prediction Markets vs Gambling
- Prediction markets differ from gambling because they deal with natural risks with economic utility.
- Unlike betting on artificial risks, event contracts forecast real-world outcomes and act as financial instruments.
Sports Markets Have Real Impact
- Event contracts on sports have economic and social impact beyond just betting.
- These markets help price and forecast outcomes, aiding better decision-making based on market consensus.
Focus on High Impact, Fair Markets
- Kalshi focuses on high impact events for liquidity and regulatory reasons.
- Markets must be economically relevant and not easily manipulated to maintain fairness.