What big tech's earnings can tell us about AI, rates and future volatility
Oct 27, 2023
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Discussion on big tech earning season and its implications for the tech sector and US economy. Performance of mega cap tech stocks compared to S&P 500. Effects of higher interest rates on tech giants and the semiconductor industry.
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Quick takeaways
The current tech earnings season highlights the increasing importance and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) products, indicating the market's maturation and recognition of AI's potential.
The outperformance of mega-cap tech stocks and their ability to deliver high returns on investment despite challenges like higher interest rates, underscores the market's preference for companies with strong balance sheets, liquidity, and AI integration.
Deep dives
AI emerging as a key theme in tech earnings
One of the consistent messages from the current tech earnings season is the increasing importance of artificial intelligence (AI). Companies like Microsoft and ServiceNow have highlighted the success and adoption of their AI products, signaling the emergence of AI as a tangible and impactful technology. While it may still be in the early stages, this earnings cycle reflects a small step forward for the AI theme, indicating that the market is maturing and becoming more realistic about its potential.
Mega-cap tech stocks dominating the market
Mega-cap tech stocks, such as Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, have had a massive impact on market indices like the S&P 500. This year, they have significantly outperformed small-cap stocks, leading to the largest spread in over 30 years. The market's preference for companies with strong balance sheets, liquidity, and AI integration is a major factor behind this trend. Mega-cap tech companies' earnings have outpaced the impact of higher interest rates, demonstrating their resilience and ability to deliver high returns on investment despite the challenges.
The largest companies in both tech and overall market cap are reporting earnings this week and next. Peter Callahan, our US technology, media, and telecommunications sector specialist in Global Banking & Markets, breaks down what this tells us about the tech sector and health of the US economy.