Intelligence Squared The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook with Martin Wolf (Part 1)
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Feb 12, 2025 
Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times and a distinguished financial journalist with nearly 40 years of experience, shares his insights on a turbulent economic landscape. He discusses the geopolitical shift with Trump's potential return and its implications for global trade. The conversation highlights the escalating AI race between the US and China. Wolf also addresses the UK's economic challenges, including the tension between public spending and taxation, and its effects on family businesses and farming.
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Global Economic Outlook
- The global economy is projected to grow slightly above 3%, driven by Asia, but slower than previous years due to China's slowdown.
- Uncertainty around Trump's trade policies could significantly impact business decisions and investment, creating global macroeconomic shock.
Tariff Impact on UK
- Tariffs' impact on individual economies depends on trade relationships; the UK is less exposed than Canada due to its diverse partners.
- While direct trade effects on the UK are manageable, deteriorating US relations could severely damage confidence and require geopolitical repositioning.
Trump Administration's Impact
- The Trump administration's radical governance, including deregulation and emphasis on cryptocurrency, is profoundly changing the US.
- The combination of tax cuts, full employment, and potential trade wars could lead to inflation, rising interest rates, and market instability.
