Skylar Montgomery Koning, Axel Merk, and Luis Costa discuss the vulnerability of the dollar, bullish case for gold, and global debt markets respectively. Topics also include US economy performance, market analysis, gold investment, Japanese market intervention, profits breakdown in the concert industry, and advancements in rapid charging technology for electric vehicles.
US expected to outperform globally due to strong economic growth, leading to positive outlook on exceptionalism
Short-term caution but medium-term positivity on US dollar due to global growth convergence and policy divergences
Deep dives
Global Economic Performance and Expectations
The podcast discusses the comparison of GDP and economic surprise index of different nations, highlighting the exceptional performance of the US and its expected outperformance in the coming year. It emphasizes the continued growth in the US compared to other global growth engines like China, leading to a positive outlook on US exceptionalism.
Impact on Dollar and Currency Markets
The podcast delves into the short-term caution and medium-term positivity regarding the US dollar. It reflects on the convergence of global growth with the US still outperforming, leading to a more positive medium-term view on the dollar. Discussions on policy divergences and currency targets like Eurodollar are also touched upon.
Financial Markets and Gold Investment
A segment on gold investment explores the factors influencing gold prices, including real yields, supply and demand dynamics, and central bank buying behavior. The conversation includes insights on the potential upside for gold investments as well as the complexities of correlations and market speculation related to gold's future performance.
Emerging Markets and Investment Opportunities
The podcast explores investment opportunities in emerging markets like Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa, focusing on factors such as idiosyncratic carry trades and opportunities in the fixed income space. Discussions touch on economic policy shifts, real yields, and geopolitical influences impacting various emerging market investment strategies.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMay 24th, 2024 Featuring:
Skylar Montgomery Koning, Director of Macro Strategy at Lombard Street Research, discusses her note on the near term vulnerability of the dollar
Axel Merk, CIO and co-founder at Merk Investments, on the continued bull case for gold
Luis Costa, Global Head of EM Sovereign Debt Strategy at Citi, talks global debt markets and Turkey's potential "Renaissance Moment"
Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines