Bloomberg Surveillance Markets Face Clouded Rate Outlook as Record US Shutdown Ends
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Nov 13, 2025 
Tiffany Wilding, Managing Director at PIMCO, discusses how data delays from the recent government shutdown complicate Federal Reserve forecasting and potentially impact GDP growth. Political scientist Wendy Schiller analyzes the surprising bipartisan support for the shutdown compromise, citing protections for vulnerable groups. Kimberly LaPointe from Macquarie Asset Management reveals the benefits of private infrastructure investing, highlighting its value for wealth clients seeking diversification and stable returns amidst economic shifts.
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Data Gaps Cloud Economic Readings
- The shutdown delayed key government data, making near-term economic assessment harder.
- Private-sector indicators show a mostly stable economy with clear winners and losers.
Shutdown May Cause Q4 GDP Dip
- PIMCO estimates the shutdown could shave roughly 1–1.5% off Q4 GDP.
- Reopening and large tax refund checks should boost activity and offset the drag in Q1.
Tariffs Didn't Trigger Big Inflation
- Tariffs have not generated the large inflation surge many feared this year.
- Firms adjusted via cost cutting and labor management to defend margins instead of full pass-through.