Christian Ruhl on why we're entering a new nuclear age — and how to reduce the risks
Mar 21, 2024
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Discussing the new nuclear age dynamics involving the US, Russia, and China, the role of AI in military systems, and philanthropists focusing on post-catastrophe interventions. Emphasizing the importance of policy considerations to reduce devastating effects of global catastrophic risks.
Mitigating nuclear risks post-detonation through right-of-boom interventions is crucial for minimizing catastrophic fallout.
Neglected philanthropic funding in nuclear war prevention highlights a critical gap in addressing global risks.
Social and emotional impact of stuttering on professional interactions underscores the importance of self-acceptance and effective communication strategies.
Deep dives
Philanthropic Funding Disparity in the Nuclear Space
The podcast discusses how the average philanthropic funding in the nuclear space has been around 47 million a year, with a recent reduction due to the withdrawal of a major funder. This shortfall has left the annual expected amount at 32 million, significantly lower than budgets allocated to other non-profits or media projects. Despite the critical nature of mitigating nuclear risks, the funding disparity remains a challenge.
Underrated Approaches to Reducing Nuclear Risks
The podcast explores underrated approaches to mitigating nuclear risks, focusing on scenarios post-nuclear detonation. It delves into strategies like de-escalation after nuclear use, civil defense measures, war limitation, and planning for post-war political environments. These right-of-boom interventions are highlighted for their potential impact in minimizing the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear war.
Challenges and Solutions in Post-Nuclear War Scenarios
In discussing post-nuclear war scenarios, the podcast addresses concerns about political system preservation after a nuclear conflict. It stresses the importance of continuity of government plans to ensure democratic transitions post-war. Initiatives like war limitation advocacy and funding for research in this area are cited as vital steps in preparing for and mitigating the consequences of nuclear conflicts.
Exploring Neglected Areas in Philanthropic Funding
One key insight discussed in the episode revolves around neglected areas in philanthropic funding, specifically focusing on nuclear weapons and preparedness. The podcast highlighted the scarcity of philanthropic funding directed towards initiatives related to nuclear war prevention, with estimates suggesting only about 1 in 30 grants addressing this critical area. The discussion delved into the potential reasons for this neglect, including historical associations with cold war thinking, disparate moral viewpoints on nuclear weapons, and the perception of political and ideological complexities surrounding the issue.
Navigating the Emotional and Professional Challenges of Stuttering
Another significant theme explored in the podcast centered around the personal experience of stuttering and its impact on various aspects of life, particularly in professional settings. The episode shed light on the emotional challenges of living with a stutter, describing the feeling of struggling to communicate fluently, especially in situations like job interviews or public speaking engagements. The conversation also delved into the social dynamics and psychological implications of managing a stutter in career-related interactions, underscoring the importance of self-acceptance and finding strategies to navigate communication barriers effectively.
"We really, really want to make sure that nuclear war never breaks out. But we also know — from all of the examples of the Cold War, all these close calls — that it very well could, as long as there are nuclear weapons in the world. So if it does, we want to have some ways of preventing that from turning into a civilisation-threatening, cataclysmic kind of war. And those kinds of interventions — war limitation, intrawar escalation management, civil defence — those are kind of the seatbelts and airbags of the nuclear world. So to borrow a phrase from one of my colleagues, right-of-boom is a class of interventions for when “shit hits the fan.” —Christian Ruhl
In this episode of 80k After Hours, Luisa Rodriguez and Christian Ruhl discuss underrated best bets to avert civilisational collapse from global catastrophic risks — things like great power war, frontier military technologies, and nuclear winter.
How the geopolitical situation has changed in recent years into a “three-body problem” between the US, Russia, and China.
How adding AI-enabled technologies into the mix makes things even more unstable and unpredictable.
Why Christian recommends many philanthropists focus on “right-of-boom” interventions — those that mitigate the damage after a catastrophe — over traditional preventative measures.
Concrete things policymakers should be considering to reduce the devastating effects of unthinkable tragedies.
And on a more personal note, Christian’s experience of having a stutter.
Who this episode is for:
People interested in the most cost-effective ways to prevent nuclear war, such as:
Deescalating after accidental nuclear use.
Civil defence and war termination.
Mitigating nuclear winter.
Who this episode isn’t for:
People interested in the least cost-effective ways to prevent nuclear war, such as:
Coating every nuclear weapon on Earth in solid gold so they’re no longer functional.
Creating a TV show called The Real Housewives of Nuclear Winter about the personal and professional lives of women in Beverly Hills after a nuclear holocaust.
A multibillion dollar programme to invent a laser beam that could write permanent messages on the Moon, and using it just once to spell out #nonukesnovember.
Chapters:
The three-body problem (00:04:11)
Effect of AI (00:07:58)
What we have going for us, and not (00:13:32)
Right-of-boom interventions (00:17:50)
Deescalating after accidental nuclear use (00:24:23)
Civil defence and war termination (00:30:40)
Mitigating nuclear winter (00:37:07)
Planning for a postwar political environment (00:40:19)
Experience of having a stutter (00:53:52)
Christian’s archaeological excavation in Guatemala (01:09:51)
Producer: Keiran Harris Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell Technical editing: Ben Cordell and Milo McGuire Content editing: Katy Moore, Luisa Rodriguez, and Keiran Harris Transcriptions: Katy Moore
