7/5/25 Matt Williams on Taiwan, Nukes, War Crimes and Ukraine

• Australia relies heavily on the US for defense but lacks the military power to independently deter neighbors like China or Indonesia.
• Guerrilla warfare and long-range patrol tactics are key to Australia's defense strategy against any potential invasion.

• Taking Taiwan militarily is enormously costly and complex, requiring massive troop landings vulnerable to attack.
• China may prefer strategic patience given the immense military and political risks involved in an invasion.

Matt Williams argues that the proliferation of nuclear weapons among countries like Australia, Ukraine, Iran, and others is inevitable and rooted in fundamental security concerns. He states that nations reliant on allies for defense, like Australia dependent on the U.S., desire their own nuclear arsenal as the ultimate deterrent in case those allies fail to intervene in conflicts.

Using Ukraine as an example, Matt points out that if it had nuclear weapons, Russia likely would not have invaded. He also highlights the complexity of modern warfare where conventional strategic bombing and raids can't fully replace the infantry in seizing and holding ground, emphasizing the messy, brutal nature of wars today.

Furthermore, Matt discusses how the breaking of treaties and mistrust in international inspections, such as those involving Iran, further accelerates the nuclear arms race. This nuclear reality paradoxically has prevented large-scale wars between great powers since World War II, even as it portends potential catastrophic future risks.