Lowy Institute Conversations: Understanding influence in Southeast Asia
Sep 25, 2025
Susannah Patton, Deputy Director at the Lowy Institute, and Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow specializing in Southeast Asian defense diplomacy, dive into the Southeast Asia Influence Index project. They explore the complex geopolitics of the region, revealing that China holds a slight lead over the US in influence. The duo discusses surprising findings, like India's limited reach, and highlights the importance of middle powers. They emphasize the need for Southeast Asian countries to diversify their partnerships amid growing external pressures.
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Measuring Influence By Activities Not Coercion
- The Southeast Asia Influence Index maps activities that generate influence across economics, defence, diplomacy, culture and regional engagement.
- It focuses on partners' activities rather than discrete attempts to coerce or induce behaviour.
Quality Matters In Defence Agreements
- The index measures not just quantity but the quality of defence agreements, dialogues and exercises.
- US/allied agreements often include deep intelligence and logistics ties, while some Chinese pacts focus on confidence-building exchanges.
Concrete Example Of Defence Agreement Differences
- Rahman contrasted Chinese confidence-building defence pacts with US-style agreements involving intelligence and logistics.
- He used exchanges and expert visits as typical Chinese measures versus deeper US allied cooperation.