Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, brings her extensive expertise on Syria to the discussion. She delves into the intricate power dynamics that led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad, examining the influence of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Hall explores the implications of the regime's collapse, including the challenges facing various stakeholders like ISIS and the Kurds, and the ongoing dilemma around Syrian refugees. She reflects on the uncertain future and the importance of Syrian agency in shaping the path ahead.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime resulted from waning external support and a significant decline in internal loyalty among Syrians.
The aftermath of Assad's collapse has left a power vacuum in Syria, raising concerns about future governance and stability among various factions.
Deep dives
The Fall of the Assad Regime
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria marks a significant turning point after over a decade of civil war. This regime, known for its ruthlessness, unexpectedly fell following a rapid offensive by rebel forces, which led to the capture of major cities including Damascus. Despite previous predictions of Assad's resilience due to support from external powers like Russia and Iran, internal unrest and declining public support significantly weakened his grip on power. The offensive revealed that many who were once pro-regime lost their willingness to fight, resulting in a domino effect that culminated in the regime's downfall.
External Support and the Dynamics of War
The role of external supporters has been critical throughout the Syrian conflict, especially in the survival of the Assad regime. Initially, support from Russia and Iran, alongside groups like Hezbollah, bolstered Assad's military effectively, enabling him to quell opposition significantly during the early stages of the war. However, as external dynamics shifted and support waned, the regime's ability to control the situation severely diminished. The lack of external aid, combined with the growing internal discontent among the Syrian populace, created a vacuum that the rebels effectively exploited during their offensive.
The Unwillingness to Continue the Fight
A key factor in the regime's downfall was the diminishing will among Syrians to support or continue fighting for Assad. Economic decline, high unemployment, and rampant corruption contributed to widespread dissatisfaction even among those who once felt obligated to defend the regime. Many military personnel and loyalists faced mounting casualties without hope of victory, leading to reduced morale and significant defections. This decline in loyalty was particularly exacerbated by visible cuts to their livelihoods, resulting in a general reluctance to dedicate their lives for a regime increasingly seen as illegitimate.
Future Implications and Uncertainties
The future landscape of Syria remains fraught with uncertainty following the regime's collapse, with various factions vying for power. While there is some enthusiasm for the potential of reform and governance in a post-Assad Syria, concerns persist over which group will fill the power vacuum, particularly with factions like HTS gaining momentum. Bordering countries such as Turkey and Israel have vested interests, complicating the emergence of a stable governance structure and leaving many civilians in limbo. Additionally, the fate of Syrian refugees and displaced citizens hangs in the balance, with repatriation efforts complicated by an unstable environment and potential humanitarian crises looming.
For well over a decade, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad managed to hold onto power during a complicated civil war involving a number of anti-regime rebel groups. And then, rebels launched a lightning offensive that saw a series of Syrian cities—including, ultimately, the capital Damascus—fall. Assad was gone and more than a half-century of rule by his family came to an end. To explore how that happened and what comes next, John Amble is joined on this episode by Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies with deep expertise on Syria.
The MWI Podcast is produced with the generous support of the West Point Class of 1974.
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