Modern War Institute How the Assad Regime Fell
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Dec 13, 2024 Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, brings her extensive expertise on Syria to the discussion. She delves into the intricate power dynamics that led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad, examining the influence of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Hall explores the implications of the regime's collapse, including the challenges facing various stakeholders like ISIS and the Kurds, and the ongoing dilemma around Syrian refugees. She reflects on the uncertain future and the importance of Syrian agency in shaping the path ahead.
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Regime Collapse
- The Assad regime's survival for over a decade, despite its brutality, wasn't a surprise.
- Its sudden collapse, however, raises questions about underlying vulnerabilities.
Factors of Regime Stability
- External support and internal willingness to fight are key factors in regime stability.
- Understanding how these dynamics shift can predict regime changes.
Russian Intervention
- Russia's intervention in 2015, with superior firepower like Sukhoi jets, was a turning point.
- This made external support for the rebels less feasible due to Russia's nuclear power status.