RANE Podcast Series Israel-Iran: How Will it End?
Jun 17, 2025
Ryan Bohl, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, dives into the intricate dynamics of the Israel-Iran conflict. He discusses recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear program and the impact of U.S. involvement on regional stability. Bohl highlights the myriad incentives influencing the conflict and explores potential resolutions, emphasizing the complexities of hostilities and the economic ramifications for global energy markets. The conversation also touches on the implications of Iran's retaliatory strategies and the future of U.S.-Israeli relations.
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Iran-Israel Conflict Endgame Possibility
- The Iran-Israel conflict might end by returning to nuclear negotiations with Iran weakened by airstrikes.
- However, talks may only delay future crises as Iran could rebuild its nuclear program under cover of diplomatic talks.
Energy Shock Could Force Ceasefire
- A possible end to conflict is a ceasefire triggered by an energy shock from Iranian attacks on the Strait of Hormuz.
- If the U.S. blinks first, Iran could gain a strategic victory by leveraging threats to global energy supplies.
Potential for Prolonged Conflict
- The conflict may settle into a prolonged cycle of attacks and escalations rather than a decisive end.
- Neither Israel nor Iran can fully destroy each other, making endless low-intensity conflict likely if political will persists.