The Global Lithium Podcast Episode 223: Listener Q&A
Nov 19, 2025
In a solo session, Joe dives into the current dynamics of lithium demand and pricing, discussing Ganfeng's optimistic forecasts and Canaccord's bullish outlook. He highlights the growing battery market's impact on US EV demand and reveals updates on Thacker Pass's progress. Joe critiques Rio Tinto's uncertain strategy while addressing Congressional findings on Chinese price manipulation. The conversation also touches on Exxon's long-term approach and the complexities of the Kwinana refinery partnership. It's a rich exploration of the evolving lithium landscape.
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Gangfen Signals Big 2026 Demand Upswing
- Gangfen's founder publicly forecast strong 2026 demand growth and signaled potential for much higher carbonate prices.
- This unusual candor from a major Chinese converter suggests Chinese supply-chain participants expect rising prices and want upstream margins protected.
Canaccord's Bullish Price Deck Raises Questions
- Canaccord raised its spodumene and carbonate price decks meaningfully for 2026 and 2027, implying stronger future cash flows for producers.
- Joe Lowry notes a potential mismatch between their spodumene and carbonate assumptions that merits further scrutiny.
Converters Pushing For Upstream Profitability
- Gangfen's public price talk communicates that converters expect upstream producers to make money, shifting industry margin dynamics.
- Joe Lowry interprets this as pressure on CATL and BYD to accept higher raw-material prices to secure long-term supply.