TRIGGERnometry

Will Trump Win Again? - Matthew Goodwin

Sep 20, 2020
Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor at the University of Kent and author of "National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy," dives into the dynamics of the upcoming U.S. election. He explores Trump and Biden's strategies, voter demographics, and the impact of identity politics on American political identity. Goodwin examines the psychological stakes for both parties and the growing polarization in society, emphasizing the importance of addressing core social issues to reconnect with voters and navigate the emotional landscape of the election.
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INSIGHT

A Consequential Election

  • The 2020 US election is a referendum on Trump and a test of mainstream politics' response to populism.
  • It will determine whether liberalism can offer a compelling alternative.
ANECDOTE

Foreseeing Trump's Win

  • Matthew Goodwin correctly predicted Trump's 2016 victory, challenging prevailing assumptions.
  • His analysis focused on state-level polls and voter turnout patterns, insights overlooked by others.
INSIGHT

Trump's Strengths and Democrats' Weakness

  • Trump's pre-COVID polling suggested a comfortable re-election, driven by economic performance and policy achievements.
  • Democrats' focus on anti-Trump messaging, rather than a positive vision, posed a key weakness.
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