Will Gold, Silver Price Crash In 2025 Under Trump 2.0? | Nicky Shiels
Dec 4, 2024
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Nicky Shiels, Head of Research & Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, shares her insights on the future of gold and silver amidst shifting economic landscapes. She delves into how a potential Trump administration could impact U.S. inflation and the dollar. The conversation highlights evolving gold demand, especially in China, contrasting physical ownership with financial products. Shiels also discusses fluctuating prices, forecasting scenarios for both gold and silver, while reflecting on historical investor anxieties and the geopolitical factors influencing current markets.
Tariffs can temporarily strengthen the U.S. dollar, negatively impacting gold and silver, but may lead to a weaker dollar long-term.
Inflationary pressures and central bank purchases are key drivers of gold and silver prices, indicating potential for significant future increases.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Currency and Commodity Prices
The discussion on tariffs reveals their potential influence on the U.S. dollar and broader commodity prices. Initially, tariffs may create a bullish scenario for the dollar, leading to a short-term headwind for commodities such as gold and silver. However, the underlying strategy could involve using tariffs as a bargaining tool, potentially resulting in a weaker dollar in the long run. This dynamic suggests that while immediate effects may be felt, the macroeconomic consequences will unfold over time, significantly affecting commodities.
Inflation Trends and Their Bullish Effects on Gold
The conversation highlights the persistent inflationary pressures affecting economic outlooks, with current inflation rates suggesting a shift to a higher floor. The speaker argues that the Federal Reserve's current policies are insufficient to combat these inflation trends, which may bolster gold prices moving forward. With inflation expectations rising and the Fed potentially behind the curve, there is a prevailing sentiment that real rates will decrease, further enhancing the appeal of gold as an investment. This shift in inflation dynamics underscores a broader change from the prevailing low-inflation environment of previous decades.
Drivers of Gold and Silver Demand
The dialogue elaborates on the factors steering gold and silver prices, underscoring the pivotal role of central bank purchases and geopolitical circumstances. Central banks' aggressive accumulation of gold, especially post-sanction scenarios, has provided substantial support for gold prices, disrupting traditional correlations with currencies and interest rates. Silver, driven by industrial demand, is expected to gain traction as it aligns with macroeconomic trends, suggesting potential for significant price increases. Moreover, physical investment channels are expanding, particularly in the U.S., revealing a growing interest among retail investors in both gold and silver.
Nicky Shiels, Head of Research & Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, discusses the 2025 outlook for Fed monetary policy, the U.S. dollar, gold, silver, and inflation.
Although the information in this interview has been obtained from and is based upon sources MKS PAMP believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute MKS PAMP' judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This interview is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of an investment. This interview does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.
*This video was recorded on December 3, 2024
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*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
0:33 - US dollar and tariffs
3:00 - Inflation outlook
5:05 - Fed monetary policy
7:55 - Why did gold fall after Trump
9:30 - Main drivers of gold
11:40 - China’s demand for gold
13:50 - Gold price outlook
15:45 - Gold’s downside risks
17:55 - Debt levels
20:00 - Silver price outlook
#gold #silver #economy
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