#83 - How much longer can the US Dollar stay on top? - w/ Herman Mark Schwartz
Aug 22, 2022
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Herman Mark Schwartz, an academic from the University of Virginia, dives into the enduring dominance of the US Dollar as the world’s primary currency. He discusses the surprising persistence of dollar reliance despite ongoing current account deficits and examines the intricate relationship between trust in government institutions and monetary value. Schwartz also explores how economic struggles in countries like Ruritania and shifts towards protectionism impact global finance. The conversation raises questions about the future of the dollar in a changing political and economic landscape.
Despite persistent US trade deficits, countries still prefer the dollar due to its perceived stability and trust in US assets.
The dollar's dominance is threatened by potential vulnerabilities linked to US domestic policies and shifting global economic dynamics.
Deep dives
The Dollar's Dominance Amid Trade Deficits
The continued use of the US dollar as the global currency is puzzling given the US's persistent trade deficits. Normally, a country running such deficits would face decreased demand for its currency, yet the world still prefers to trade in dollars. This situation arises because, despite the US importing more than it exports, countries continue to trust that US-generated dollar-denominated assets will eventually yield returns on their exports. The dollar remains central because it is still perceived as a stable form of payment, leading countries to accept it in exchange for their goods despite the deficit.
Understanding Money Beyond Cash
A comprehensive understanding of money reveals that cash is merely the surface of a more complex system composed mainly of digital records, which represent debts and credits. Most money exists as electronic records in banks, functioning as liabilities and assets simultaneously. In this system, various forms of money exist in a hierarchy, with state-backed currencies holding the highest value because they are accepted for tax payments. This hierarchical structure indicates that money is fundamentally a trust in future performance tied to the government's ability to collect taxes.
Implications of the Dollar as Global Quasi-Money
The US dollar operates as a quasi-state money for the global economy, facilitating international trade and lending across various countries. This system creates a dependency wherein countries with trade surpluses, like Germany and Japan, recycle their dollar earnings back into the financial system to support international trade. As many countries prefer to accept dollars, they become reliant on US economic performance and liquidity. This dependence implies that changes in the dollar's status or US economic stability may disrupt their financial wellbeing.
Challenges to Dollar Dominance and Future Prospects
The dollar's status as the world's primary currency faces potential vulnerabilities related to US domestic policies and economic performance. Political shifts, such as protectionist measures and manufacturing job losses, may lead to a decline in support for the dollar, threatening its dominance. Additionally, if the US were to struggle economically or if international markets shift towards other currencies for transactions, the current system could unravel. The long-term sustainability of the dollar's prominence will likely depend on global stability and the US's ability to adapt to changing economic dynamics.
In this episode, Herman Mark Schwartz of the University of Virginia discusses why the US Dollar has remained the central world currency despite the fact that the US is persistently running current account deficits
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