FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 19 Jan 2026
Jan 18, 2026
Join economist Stephen Koukoulas, known as 'The Kook' for his insightful commentary on macroeconomic trends, as he dives into the complexities of today’s economy. He explains the impactful distortions of Black Friday on inflation data and discusses the rise in household spending linked to improved cash flow. Koukoulas also highlights what businesses should monitor in 2026, urging them to focus on economic activity and consumer confidence rather than inflation fears. Finally, he unpacks the current state of the housing market and its limited downside risks.
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Monthly Inflation Can Be Distorted
- Monthly inflation figures are noisy and subject to one-off distortions like electricity subsidies and council rates.
- These quirks can mislead monetary policy expectations if taken at face value.
Black Friday And Petrol Skew Monthly Numbers
- High-frequency monthly data (eg Black Friday discounts, petrol moves) create volatility in month-on-month inflation.
- Analysts should wait for quarterly numbers to see through these temporary effects.
Consumer Spending Is Picking Up
- Household consumption has risen with multiple months of gains, helped by Black Friday and easing cash flow from past rate cuts.
- Wages are rising modestly, supporting spending but not driving overheating.