Big Take Even a US Blockade of Venezuela Isn’t Spiking Oil Prices
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Dec 22, 2025 
In this discussion, oil trading reporter Alex Longley and opinion columnist Javier Blas analyze the surprising stability of oil prices despite a U.S. blockade of Venezuela. They explore how global supply growth from various countries is outpacing demand, driving prices down. The duo dives into the implications of a potential ceasefire in Russia and discusses how this could lead to an oil glut by 2026. They also highlight the beneficiaries of lower prices, while detailing the challenges faced by major oil exporters and shale regions.
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Venezuela No Longer Moves Global Prices
- Venezuela's oil now represents less than 1% of global demand, so U.S. moves there barely move prices.
- Global production growth from many countries is the main reason oil isn't spiking despite conflicts.
High Demand But Even Higher Supply
- Global oil demand is at an all-time high, so weak prices reflect supply growth not falling demand.
- New supply from U.S. shale, OPEC, Guyana and Brazil is driving the oversupply dynamic.
How Big A 4 Million Barrel Glut Is
- An oversupply of up to 4 million barrels a day equals two supertankers arriving daily, illustrating scale.
- Traders view even lower estimates as a still very oversupplied market needing price falls to clear inventory.